A Case Study In Effective Leverage Operations: How The Western Sahara Was Won By Morocco: Part I.
On October 31, 2025, the UN Security Council adopted Resolution 2797/
This resolution described a “genuine autonomy under Moroccan sovereignty” as the “most feasible” solution for Western Sahara.
It also referenced Morocco’s autonomy plan six times as the basis for negotiations.
Eleven members voted in favor, including the US, France, and the UK.
China, Russia, and Pakistan abstained, and Algeria refused to participate.
But crucially, nobody voted no.
Undoubtedly, this was music to the ears of the Moroccan leadership, starting with King Mohammed VI
Fifty years after Morocco annexed the territory, the world’s highest security body effectively blessed the outcome as the de facto reality on the ground.
Trump recently reaffirmed it in July, calling Moroccan autonomy “the sole solution”
(side note: while his envoy Steve Witkoff (who else) works on an Algeria-Morocco peace deal as the next trophy for Trump to collect.)
Morocco’s diplomatic campaign has been very effective: nearly 50 countries have revoked recognition of the Sahrawi republic over two decades.
In addition about 40% of African states have opened consulates in Laayoune or Dakhla, on occupied (by Morocco) ground, granting additional legitimacy.
Now, this is one of the most complete diplomatic victories any middle power has engineered in the modern era.
(side note: The term “middle power” has been overused lately. It includes states that are true middle powers, like NATO member Turkey, and others like Brazil, and Indonesia, but also some smaller, significantly poorer states. But even though size and economy are usually necessary conditions for the middle power status. Other factors can overcompensate for this.
Morocco has a population of around 39 million and a GDP of just shy of $200 billion USD. It’s not remotely an economic power, but its willingness to resort to both hard power and diplomacy, as well as its strategic position and ability to use critical chokepoints from the North African coast (migration) to the Gibraltar Strait, gives it a significant power relative to its actual size and the size of its economy. So overall, we could label Morocco as a middle power too. )
And this diplomatic victory was won by a country with no outright great-power patron (although that may be changing now, with the U.S. - Morocco partnership becoming closer than ever).
In response to the cable on Morocco’s willingness to weaponize migration (via either commission or a mission to put pressure on Spain), we got a lot more questions from readers.
We discussed briefly in the previous cable how Morocco was able to use leverage to gain recognition over Western Sahara, and a lot of readers wanted to have a closer look at how exactly this was achieved.
So this cable asks two questions.
What did the United States, Israel, Spain, and France actually get for recognizing the annexation?
And what leverage did Morocco use on each of them?
The playbook and sequence of events is fascinating.
