As The New Syrian State Consolidates, Israel Risks Overreach and Self-Harm With New Operations South Of Damascus.

• It has been three months now that Syria's new rulers, led by HTS (which previously ruled Idlib in the northwest of Syria), is now in charge of Syria.

• The main three risks to this new government were that: 1) there would be unacceptable foreign interference from players willing to capitalize on the weak condition of a new state and to carve out its own spheres of influence, 2) that there would be internal fractures and not all factions would lay down their arms and create a unified government (and this is unacceptable because a government needs to have a monopoly on power), and 3) that the new government would misgovern: that either there would be huge counter-reactions from pro-Assad forces or there would be a rise in crime rate and/or the crippling state of economy would cause different sorts of public discontent and political instability and thus the centralization of power in Syria would come under threat.

• Although there has indeed been some of this third risk materializing, (there has indeed been backlash by revanchist Assad forces, an attempted coup to take power in certain regions, as well as some revenge attacks on pro-Assad Alawites in pockets of Syria) to a large extent, the stability has held.

• Moreover, Syria's new government has proven that they are willing to work with all different factions of Syria and not impose strict Sharia law on the Syrian people.

• In fact, three months into the rule of Damascus, the HTS-led government bars and nightclubs are open and are currently freely serving alcohol.

• Now, some of this risk will remain and although the EU has now lifted many sanctions many more sanctions must be lifted to make Syria investable.

• Luckily, regional powers like Turkey, Saudi Arabia, UAE and Qatar especially are now willing to invest into the reconstruction of Syria.