Cables From The Diplomatic Frontlines - Turkey's relations with the HTS and the Kurdish autonomy in Syria.

Turkish Foreign Minister’s most comprehensive interview after the fall of Assad.

• Turkey’s foreign minister Hakan Fidan sat down with Al-Jazeera for his first meaty interview after the fall of Bashar Assad.

• There are a lot of good tidbits and insights in the interview - so everyone interested in the near-term regional dynamics should watch it.

• But this interview was also timely - because speculations around Turkey’s role and intentions (both hitherto and going forward) abound, and so the interview offers some new (primary source) evidence for us to make our own determinations.

• Before delving into details of the interview, let us first start with few broad claims - that are both widely pushed by media/punditry sphere and also largely believed to be true:

• 1) Turkey is the clear winner of this new configuration.

• 2) That Turkey actively orchestrated removal of Assad - even Trump himself affirmed this view in his latest comments on Erdogan;

• 3) That Iran and Russia wanted to save Assad but failed to do so.

• 4) That Israel benefits from the fall of Assad - with both Iran and Russia out of its backyard.

• 5) That the US/CIA orchestrated Assad’s removal.

• The last assertion is clearly nonsensical: not only is there precisely zero evidence for this claim, but everything about Biden’s foreign policy points to the contrary: the policy of ‘‘not rocking the boat’’ first pushed by Obama and then adopted by Biden, is the very reason why Iran could create its “axes of resistance” in the first place.

• And the Biden admin certainly provided additional tacit support for the Arab league - Assad-led Syria normalization.

• (side note: and if Netanyahu was to listen to Biden and not go after Hezbollah and Iranian militia in Syria, it is more likely than not that Assad would still be in power today.)

• Given how muddy the waters are, Mr Fidan’s interview was therefore quite useful - allowing us to extract lots of useful insights and indicators.

On Turkey’s role in the overthrow of Assad and relations with the HTS.