Cables From The Diplomatic Frontlines - as Ukraine's counteroffensive stalls, Putin exploits divisions within the west: another stab at divide and conquer.

*programming note: cables will be off for holidays, and back in January. Merry Christmas and a happy new year! 

Putin smells blood in the water, renews divide & conquer, and offers an ultimate hedge.

• For Ukraine, this year is ending on a negative point: €50bn from EU was blocked by a Putin appeaser Victor Orban, and a larger $60bn from Congress has also been delayed due to lack of statesmanship at the time of historic geopolitical crisis - where the US is playing a leading definitive role.

• Countless pundits have now debated the ‘‘endgame’’ in Ukraine.

• But it really is not very complicated… this is not a war where America is fighting a foreign enemy on a foreign soil: and that enemy is a decentralized insurgency/terrorist organization, and local allies are far from impressive..

• In short this is nothing like the wars of the past 20 years - on this occasion, it really isn’t very complicated: we have a nation willing and able to fight back against a superpower - an army hitherto considered to be second only to that of the US.

• But in spite of success in reclaiming a number of cities and swathes of territory, our Ukrainian allies have always been fighting with one hand tied behind their backs.

• Restrictions on targeting, constantly delayed military aid, and provision of weapons months after they are most needed (like the ATACMS delivered at the end of the counteroffensive this fall - instead of, at the outset of the campaign: when they would have inflicted the maximum damage).

• Not only did the west expect Ukraine to fight an advanced Russian army without any air power, but it also forced its beleaguered President to spend an inordinate amount of time traveling all around, and convincing NATO states to do what is already in their own national interest…

• Only to be then ridiculed by the far-right imbecilic media personalities (and their lackeys in Congress) who have zero understanding of geopolitical interests, and America’s primary and definitive role in all of this.

• And as if this weak performance wasn’t enough, the very leaders that promised to back Ukraine for “as long as it takes’’, are now conspicuously and shamefully changing their original promise.

• Just last week, President Biden switched the hitherto ostensibly iron-clad ‘‘as long as it takes’’ to “as long as we can’’.

• Now, what does that even mean?

• Leaving aside our allies in Europe, the US has an economy 10x larger than that of Russia, and with a global reserve currency and no troops on the ground, there simply isn’t an objective reason for Washington to struggle with helping Ukraine.

• In other words, there is no legitimate reason for Russia to outlast the US.

• The only way that Putin gets to outlast the west, is if the leaders in Washington and Brussels get to demonstrate an astonishing and outrageous level of personal weakness, and a total lack of political will and staying power…

• And Biden was not the only western leader displaying weakness of resolve last week.

• Addressing the German Bundestag, Chancellor Olaf Scholz added to the humiliating display.

• Commenting on Putin’s continuous desire to defeat Ukraine with military force and basing this strategy on a calculation that “international support for Ukraine is waning” , he then added the following: “Unfortunately, the danger that this calculation could work out cannot be dismissed out of hand”.

• Notice the passive language here: Scholz is speaking like a media pundit.

• Who is he complaining to?

• It is his task to prevent this ‘‘danger’’ from materializing in the first place.

• Someone should remind him that dismissing this possibility (of the waning support for Ukraine) through resolute policy and actions is his very job…

• Now, at this point, it would be useful to revisit the core premises that formed the basis for Putin’s ultimate fateful decision to invade Ukraine.

• We have frequently discussed how Putin’s initial invasion and military campaign in Ukraine was based on a number of key assumptions:

• 1) Government in Kyiv is weak and will fall as soon as I invade and our networks of agents give a little push from the inside.

• 2) Even if the initial regime change fails, the Ukrainian army will not fight back with sufficient will and competence to prevent a quick defeat.

• 3) The west will not enter the war, fight on behalf of Ukraine, or enforce a no-fly zone.

• 4) The west will not provide Ukraine with weapons and funds necessary to win.

• 5) Our economy will withstand sanctions and restrictions imposed by the west.

• 6) No matter how long the west supports Ukraine, I will always outlast them all.

• The first two assumptions were proven clearly wrong.

• The third assumption was correct, but so what?

• No one was ever advocating the US or NATO fighting a war for Ukraine with its own troops on the ground.

• (side note: that is unless Russia ends up crossing all lines and resorts to nuclear weapons in Ukraine - something that would put entire Europe in jeopardy. Hence the suggestion of the former CENTCOM commander and the CIA director General Petraeus that the US would (in response) wipe out Russia’s Black Sea navy and entire army in Ukraine.)

• The fifth assumption was also thus far correct - although Russian economy is definitely hurting (and this hurt is largely masked by huge government spending on armament and war production) and we have discussed (and will continue to) how to close the loopholes in sanctions and sharpen their blow, it is the assumptions #4 and #6 that are the most relevant to our present discussion.

• Putin is correct on #4: the west provided enough aid to prevent a collapse of Ukraine, but nowhere near enough for Ukraine to accomplish a clear and definitive victory.

• And precisely because the only reason for this lack of support is political will and not lack of material means, that Putin’s final assumption is at a real danger of being affirmed as well.

• The US, the EU, and G7 can (and hopefully will) reverse the current trajectory and finally pull the trigger on decisive military and financial aid to Ukraine.

• But at the moment, Putin has every reason to believe that this is not going to happen.

• And precisely for this reason, he is smelling blood in the water, noticing cracks in the western resolve, and differences of opinion between allies.

• And ever a tactical opportunist, he pounced on this opening to double down on the tactics of divide and conquer under the pretenses of extending an olive branch to the west in general, and to the US in particular.

Signaling to Washington.