Cables From The Diplomatic Frontlines - Israeli airstrikes and Iran's strategic dilemmas going forward - Part II.

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Long-term issues and incentives to develop nuclear weapons.

• Fundamentally however, Iran’s problems of weakened deterrence will remain as a long-term challenge.

• Although it is too soon to speculate on the regime’s next steps, directionally, there are two broad options: 1) normalizing relations with the West, or 2) developing nuclear weapons.

• Doing them both will no longer be possible - Israel will not allow for that and will drag Iran into war at all/any cost.

• (side note: one could argue that the JCPOA/Iran nuclear deal of 2015 was precisely that third option: Iran would ostensibly open up and normalize relations with the West, but still maintain its ability to enrich Uranium (even if at lower levels), build up its nuclear expertise, and secure the ability to develop advanced delivery systems - ballistic missiles (under the guise of space/satellite program))

• So in the medium to long term, Iran will need to pick a lane: either they go in the direction of rapprochement, or a full-scale sprint towards nuclear weapons.

• When it comes to preventing Iran from acquiring nukes, a lot of analysts are reading too much into differences between Harris and Trump campaigns.

• Although it is true that there will be differences in intensity of sanctions etc - that will only apply for day to day policy.

• When it comes to preventing Iran from acquiring nuclear weapons however, both candidates are broadly on the same page: it is hard to see how either Trump or Harris would not fully support preventative Israeli airstrikes, or even join these operations directly.

• So instead, whether Nuclearisation is a viable option for Iran, will primarily depend on how much external support Tehran can secure.