Cables From The Diplomatic Frontlines - Part II on Iran/Houthi threat: why it might be in US interests to escalate and deal with this menace now vs opting to leave it for later.
Part II: Why it may fit America’s interest to back Israel over a wider precision-strike campaign against Iran and Houthis.
In last week’s cable, we discussed how targeting Hizbullah and even Iran itself, may be in Israeli interests: although there would surely be major costs to this endeavor, fundamentally however, Israeli leaders who favor a near-term escalatory action would have essentially decided that: 1) an eventual showdown is inevitable, and 2) doing this now, on their timeline, and at the time when the overall context was still favorable (and the US was yet to be fully entangled in the Pacific over any future Taiwan crisis) was preferable over the alternative march towards a future larger war when the timing was (relatively) in Iran’s favor.
But given the overall context and trajectory of events, it may indeed additionally be in the US (and EU/NATO) interests to escalate a military campaign against Iran and its network of proxies - and if so, synchronize this escalation with Israel’s possible moves against Hizbullah.
At this point, it is important to define what exactly would such a campaign entail.
To be very clear, an escalation towards a general war that involves a protracted campaign and US/allied troops on the ground, or any land invasion/operations is most definitely not in the US interests.
Although Iran is a menace, there are still a number of alternative means of stopping it in its tracks (including its nuclear ambitions) with far more limited precision strikes and acts of cyber attacks/other sabotage.
There simply is no pressing national security threat of a magnitude and immediacy that would justify a large-scale military campaign or an invasion of any sorts.
What the US and its allies could do however, is to replicate and expand upon the air/missile strikes campaign that have targeted Houthis in Yemen last week, and have already resulted in destruction of approximately 30% of Houthis offensive capabilities (and we previously discussed why such a successful, high-touch, casualty-free campaign stopped short and did not go all the way - allowing for Houthis to retaliate. More on that later below)
And there are a number of military and strategic objectives that could in fact be accomplished with this expanded air strike/missile campaign that might potentially target: Hizbullah (carried out by mainly Israel), Houthis, Iranian militias in Iraq and Syria, and key military targets in Iran itself.
Such a campaign could aim to achieve the following:
1) Destroy/degrade Iran-backed militia, weaken or even effectively eliminate their capacity to cause security threat to US troops, assets, allies on the ground, and international commerce.
2) Weaken the power and reach of the Iran-backed militias, and degrade their capacity to take over and weaken states (like Iraq, and Yemen) that they inhabit - cut off the regional cancer of Iran-backed terrorist militias.
3) Target and destroy key Iranian military infrastructure: airfield, missile silos/launchers & launch sites, radars, command & control centers, warships and submarines, and crucially, all important and relevant facilities (like Fordow and Natanz) that play key roles in Iran’s nuclear ambitions - in essence, weaken or eliminate Iran’s capacity to: 1) develop nuclear weapons, 2) carry out lasting and effective military campaigns targeting the US and its allies in the region.
4) Target and destroy key military-industrial production sites involved in the development of drones, missiles, and other technology/ammo that Iran: 1) uses to develop its/its proxies’ military capacity, and 2) uses to supply Russia with missiles/drones to be used in Ukraine.
In this post, we shall explore how and why the situation may escalate further, and how it may in fact be in the US/Western interests to do so now rather than later.
1) The US may have little choice but to escalate - given the ongoing campaign against Houthis.
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