Cables From The Diplomatic Frontlines - Israel vs Hamas war: deterrence and dissuasion equation on Iran.

Washington uses a mix of hard and soft power on Iran.

• As Israel continues to evacuate the border towns near southern Lebanon (more than 120k civilians have been evacuated) the probability around the potential wider war between Israel vs Iranian proxies conflict keeps rising.

• It is not just that Israeli evacuations are indicators of what is about to come - they are, in that they suggest a desire to create a buffer zone where the collateral damage to Israeli civilians in a potential all-out war with Hizbullah - which the Israeli government may in fact be planning for.

• Then again, one cannot blame Israeli government for a desire to preempt any possible danger to civilians (even if they are not the ones planning for war) given what happened with Hamas: Israeli public is united, and the questions around the security failure associated with the October 7th attacks are (for now) parked for later.

• But another major miscalculation (in favor of complacency) on behalf of the Israeli government is unlikely to be tolerated even in the middle of an ongoing war: and Netanyahu must surely understand this.

• With that said, Israeli moves to evacuate significant amount of civilians away from Hizbullah’s reach will provide mix of contradictory incentives - and the ultimate effect of these incentives/dis-incentives will depend on the precise state of mind of Hizbullah and Iranian regimes’ leadership:

• 1) It may end up (inadvertently) convincing Hizbullah/Iran leadership that Israel is indeed planning for an all out assault - hence the buffer zone.

• In this scenario, Iran/Hizbullah will have an incentive to preempt with their own attack to maintain initiative: if there is a belief that the war is very likely, then it is better to preserve agency and be the one maintaining more control and momentum early on.

• 2) If Hizbullah/Iranian leadership is genuinely uninterested in a major war with Israel (and logically, they should in fact be uninterested in this), then the presence of a buffer zone is in fact perversely advantageous for Hizbullah: they can launch missiles/rockets targeting northern Israel without causing much civilian harm (because there are simply not many left).

• In this way, Hizbullah can be seen as fighting Israel, and not standing idly (and watching passively how Israeli troops roll into Gaza to take out Hamas), but at the same time, the damage inflicted to Israel would be deliberately minimal - so that the latter does not need to escalate beyond its own artillery/limited missiles strikes.

• In many ways this would be similar to Iranian response to the January 2020 assassination of Quds forces commander Qasem Soleimani - who was killed in Iraq by hellfire missiles launched from American reaper drones.

• In response to that attack, Iran launched 12 ballistic missiles targeting a US military base (al-Asad) in western Iraq.

• But curiously, American intel knew about the imminent attack just before missiles were launched - as a result, (and by the time of the eventual missile launches) most American servicemen had either evacuated or hid in bunkers during the attack.

• Many American soldiers suffered from severe concussions and brain injury from ballistic missiles pounding the ground on top of the bunkers - but there were no deaths.

• And this is crucial, since it is inconceivable that the US would not have started a war (even if limited in duration/nature) if dozens or even hundreds of American soldiers were to be killed in this incident.

• Iran was of course aware - but it also could not have done nothing either: Soleimani was arguably the second most powerful leader after the Grand Ayatollah Khamenei himself.

• As such, many reputable strategists have suggested (without much evidence - so it is still nothing more than an intellectual guess/speculation) that Iran leaked the plans of this particular attack rather deliberately - to avoid American deaths, and thus, further escalation.