Cables From The Diplomatic Frontlines - Iran's enrichment violations lead to a likely military showdown : how to possibly avoid one.

Iran’s enrichment games are entering danger zones.

• The news of China’s possible game-changing cooperation with Russia - potentially supplying Russia with attack drones and conventional ammo - had sucked most of the media attention, diverting the spotlight from likely a more urgent and dangerous (at least in the short term) development.

• That is, Iran was caught red-handed, enriching its Uranium at 84% - mere 6% below necessary for a ‘‘weapons grade’’ level.

• Iran’s previous assurances to the IAEA that it could enrich Uranium at only 60% level of purity, now ring pretty hollow.

• And to make matters worse, the UN nuclear watchdog reported that as of late January, Iran had sufficient amounts of fissile material ‘‘for several nuclear weapons”.

• Naturally, Iran had denied these reports.

• Before turning to what steps the West must now take, let us first consider why Iran would expedite and escalate its nuclear development at this precise moment.

• Leaving aside the stage of actually developing a bomb, the reason for Iran’s amped up enrichment program is a desire to maximize optionality.

• And this desire is ever more urgent due to the current context, and a mix of incentives and pressures facing Tehran.

• Why Tehran senses urgency to ramp up now.