Cables From The Diplomatic Frontlines - Shaping incentives and affecting Beijing's calculus on weapons transfer to Russia.

China’s potential entry in the Ukraine war - implications.

• Last week, two China - Ukraine related developments dominated the news.

• The first had to do with China’s bogus “12 point peace plan” and the other was the US intel that Beijing was considering weapons supply to Russia.

• In these cables we shall focus on the latter - more important and concrete- issue of a far more consequential heft.

• But before doing that, let us briefly address China-proposed 12 point peace plan.

• Most of these (as expected) are empty and meaningless platitudes.

• Some are outright nonstarters, like point #10 entitled “Stopping unilateral sanctions” , which is then further clarified to mean nothing not authorized by the UN Security Council.

• Given that Russia is part of the Security Council, and would obviously veto all sanctions against itself, what Beijing is actually saying, is that all sanctions on Russia must be lifted - meaning that not only should Ukraine be denied weapons to defend itself, but that Russia should essentially escape totally unscathed from this major crime.

• (side note: shrewder Chinese diplomacy would have reserved this specific provision until after any sort of ceasefire was achieved. Unless of course this whole thing was an obvious facade to distract from the major and more pressing issue of Beijing’s military support for Russia)

• Having said that, there are some provisions that benefit Ukraine - points like “Respecting the sovereignty of all countries” which includes the following gem: “including the purposes and principles of the United Nations Charter, must be strictly observed”.

• This specific text would deny Russia the recognition of four annexed territories (Luhansk, Donetsk, Zaporizhzhia and Kherson regions) -since they violate the UN Charter.

• In addition, points on “Keeping nuclear power plants safe”, “Resolving the humanitarian crisis” and “Facilitating grain exports” are clearly pro-Ukraine provisions.

• (side note: and the Kremlin was probably not a big fan of the following provision: “Nuclear weapons must not be used and nuclear wars must not be fought. The threat or use of nuclear weapons should be opposed.”)

• Tactically therefore, Zelensky should express willingness to consider these and push the ball on Russia’s court (which - given that Russia is right in the middle of an offensive - would be bad timing for the Kremlin).

• Zelensky must furthermore publicly invite President Xi to Ukraine (the US will understand and accept the ploy) - imposing further dilemmas and tactical difficulties on the Russia - China relationship.

• But back to the main issue at hand, there are credible reports that China is actively considering supplying Russia with weapons.

• Germany’s reputable Der Spiegel first reported late last week that the Russian officials were negotiating with the Chinese drone manufacturer Xi'an Bingo Intelligent Aviation Technology, for the mass production and delivery of 100 ZT-180 drones (that can carry warheads and act as loitering munitions, in addition to their reconnaissance functionality) to Russian forces by April.

• (side note: naturally, no Chinese company would ever agree to supply Russia with weapons without securing Beijing’s explicit approval first).

• This is of course just one reported example of what could happen.

• The more worrying scenario is that China decides to put all its mass (and military-industrial production complex) behind Russia, and supplies it with conventional weapons needed by the Kremlin - from artillery shells to armored vehicles and core logistics.

• (side note: probably anything that would not put too much stress on China’s already dwindling microchip needs).

• Now then, the first issue is to determine why China might do this?

• There are a number of interests that Beijing would advance/protect by propping up Russia with lethal military aid.