Cables From The Diplomatic Frontlines - Forcing Putin Back Into The Grain Deal

The Russia-Ukraine Grain Deal: From Stability to Turmoil.

• A pivotal agreement that once played a vital role in stabilizing global food prices and averting famine now lies in ruins.

• This is because, due to Putin’s nefarious tactical maneuvering, the longstanding grain deal between Russia and Ukraine, which permitted the transit of essential foodstuffs through the Black Sea despite the Russian naval blockade, has come to an abrupt end.

• Announced on July 17, 2023, Russia's withdrawal from the year-old accord has sent shockwaves across international markets.

• Adding to the escalating crisis, Russia's aggressive actions further exacerbated the situation.

• In a devastating blow to the grain trade, Odessa, a critical Ukrainian grain port, faced relentless bombings by Russia over a span of two days.

• The destruction of more than 60,000 tons of grain in Odessa dealt a severe blow to an already precarious situation.

• Consequently, the implications have been far-reaching and immediate.

• Food prices have experienced an unprecedented surge, with wheat, corn, and soybean costs skyrocketing in Europe, the Middle East, and beyond.

• The fragility of the global food supply chain has been laid bare, leaving nations grappling with the mounting challenge of meeting their populations' basic nutritional needs.

• As the dust settles on this once-vital trade pact, the world is left to grapple with the ramifications of its collapse.

• Ukraine (frequently called the breadbasket of Europe) is critical in global food supply - nearly 400 mln people worldwide, directly rely on foodstuffs exports from Ukraine.

• As such, restoring the agreement and pushing Putin back into this grain deal is of a paramount importance for the entire world.

• But before we look at how we can affect Putin’s calculus and force him back into the agreement, let us first unpack his tenuous rationale for withdrawal.

• Putin’s blatantly dishonest justification and it’s easy rebuttal.

• Putin has justified Russia’s withdrawal from the agreement by claiming that Russia was not getting its fair share of the benefits due - making frequent unsubstantiated claims that Russia’s own food and fertilizer exports were being restricted.

• This is nonsense, and in his letter to Putin, the UN Secretary General António Guterres actually did a pretty good job (surprisingly, for a UN chief) in dismantling the groundless assertions of the Russian side - highlighting the fact that under the deal, the Russian grain trade reached very high export volumes and that the fertilizer markets were nearing a full recovery too.

• But, of course there isn’t a legitimate reason for Putin’s withdrawal.

• Any western pundits straining and twisting themselves into pretzel knots in their attempt to “see things from Putin’s perspective” should try to also explain the reason for Russia missile strikes targeting Ukraine’s grain stores in the Danube and Odessa ports…

• So then, let’s move on to the actual reasons for withdrawal from the deal: