Cables From The Diplomatic Frontlines - Ukraine's complicity in the Nord Stream pipeline bombing and Russia deepens military cooperation with Iran.

Iran doubles down on its support for Russia.

• Iran is reportedly intensifying its support for Russia by deciding to supply hundreds of short-range ballistic missiles to prop up Putin’s invasion of Ukraine.

• Hundreds of Fath 360 missiles, capable of striking targets 18-75 miles away, are expected to be deployed by Russia in its war against Ukraine.

• These satellite-guided missiles carry a 330lb warhead and can travel at Mach 4 (four times the speed of sound).

• Dozens of Russian military personnel are reportedly training in Iran to operate the Fath 360 missiles, with the missiles expected to be delivered to Russia soon.

• For Russia, there is of course an obvious military utility of pure mass and armaments - but there is an additional tactical benefit: the potential mass deployment of these missiles could overwhelm Ukraine's air defenses, which are already strained, and may allow more dangerous Russian missiles (like Iskander-Ms) to penetrate deeper into Ukrainian territory.

• It also allows Russia to save its longer-range missiles for deep strikes while using the Fath 360 on Ukraine’s front lines.

• For Iran, deploying the Fath 360 in combat could provide critical data to refine the system and potentially increase production for exports.

• (side note: there is of course the corresponding risk that the missile signatures are tracked repeatedly by Patriots and other air defense systems in Ukrainian hands and that the findings are shared with Israelis. It is not all too hypothetical of a risk either - it will likely happen.)

• In addition, it establishes a precedent and trust for exchange of platforms and weapons-systems of ever-higher impact.

• The missile transfers underscore the growing geopolitical alignment between Russia and Iran.

• This collaboration signals a deepening partnership that could have far-reaching implications.

• The US National Security Council has warned of a "swift and severe response" if Iran proceeds with the missile transfer to Russia.

• But in practice, there is very little that the US could do within the constraints of political will.

• This is because any US measure that would potentially dissuade Iran from supplying these missiles to Russia would necessitate a major escalation.

• For example, the US could privately warn Iranian leaders that a decision to supply these missiles would carry direct costs to the facilities involved in the production of these missiles.

• Israel could be given a green light and full logistical/military support to carry out direct strikes against these facilities in question.

• In April of this year, Israel destroyed S-300 air defense system radars located in Iran with precision strikes: via ballistic missiles launched from fighter jets.

• Similar tactics can be easily replicated against the facilities in question.

• So practically speaking, there is a clear and direct way to impose unpalatable costs on Iran - but given Washington’s preoccupation with reducing tensions with Iran, such threats are unlikely to be made.

• As such, and within the context of today’s political constraints - the constraints of political appetite and of risk-taking, it is unfortunately very unlikely that the US would create any conditions sufficient enough to dissuade Iran from supplying Russia with these missiles.

Germany issues an arrest warrant for a Ukrainian diver alleged to have participated in Nord Stream sabotage - Poland fails to detain him.