Cables From The Diplomatic Frontlines - Israel pushing for unforced strategic errors and what the U.S. policy on Lebanon should be.

Israel must avoid strategic errors after a month of enormous gains.

• Before looking at how Lebanon can be helped and what the US policy should be it is important to know that, even though Israel is achieving significant military progress in southern Lebanon, (and it should continue pummeling Hezbollah) Israeli leadership must be careful not to snatch strategic defeat out of the jaws of victory.

• Indeed, not long after his address to the “noble Persian people” of Iran (where Netanyahu promised a common feature of prosperity and peace and highlighted how the Israelis and Iranians should not be enemies and that the current conflict is historic error caused by the Ayatollah regime), the Israeli Prime Minister made a similar address to the people of Lebanon.

• But unfortunately the tone here was much darker and frankly unacceptable.

• Netanyahu essentially blackmailed the Lebanese people with a threat of turning the country into Gaza - unless they commit themselves to fighting a Civil War against Hezbollah.

• This is not how you win over the people of Lebanon - where over 1 million people have been displaced already and hundreds of civilians have been killed.

• And the U.S. should most certainly also be quick to openly distance itself from such rhetoric.

• Shortly thereafter, Israeli troops wounded several United Nations (UNFIL) peacekeepers and caused a diplomatic row with Ireland (the latter still nonetheless continues to play a role in funding Israel - in spite of all of the public confrontation).

• In addition, there is now a well-circulated Haaretz report (based on senior defense officials) that claims that Netanyahu’s government is moving away from hostage talks and is instead pushing for the gradual annexation of large parts of the Gaza Strip.

• And all at the time when social media is circulating videos of Palestinian refugees burning alive (and still connected to IVs) in Al-Aqsa hospital - following a direct hit by the Israeli air force.

• All this then prompted the Biden administration (which has to date, largely given a blank check to Netanyahu) to issue a warning that if the humanitarian protections weren’t respected and if more aid wasn’t allowed to go into Gaza, then the U.S. would suspend military aid to Israel.

• Given the record to date, and given that the U.S. just deployed a THAAD battery (and 100 troops) to shield Israel and counter Iranian ballistic missile attacks (correct move), it is unclear how serious this threat really is - Israel is certainly not going to face any weapons restrictions any time soon.

• But after weeks of a favorable strategic narrative - after spotlight on a larger confrontation with Iran, Israel is once again risking to lose the diplomatic momentum through never-ending stream of unforced rhetorical errors and callous military operations conducted with little regard to civilian lives.

U.S. policy towards Lebanon: seizing strategic opportunities and a need for long-term reforms.