Cables From The Diplomatic Frontlines - Russia is to militarize Iran in return for its help in Ukraine.

Iran - Russia alliance enters a new stage: strategic implications.

• But for few egregious violations from Iran-backed militias targeting US bases and ships, the broader regional war in the Middle East has thus far been averted.

• America’s deterrence works: Iran has not displayed any indicators of force accumulation/mobilization (which would suggest an earnest preparation for a wider conflict) and its prime proxy, Hizbullah has excused itself from further direct escalation by claiming that it has already pinned down a third of IDF up north.

• Against this background of relative stability however, Iran continues to militarize and arm itself.

• Most recently, Tehran has announced finalization of a deal to buy Russia’s Su-35 multi-role air superiority fighter jets, and Mi-28 attack helicopters.

• This is a big deal, and the very first time that Iran will get its hand on a 4.5th generation fighter jet (its existing Mig-29s are 4th-gen only).

• It is likely that there will be further sales and deliveries of the S-400 air defense systems.

• Russia’s calculation in this deal.