Cables From The Diplomatic Frontlines - Dynamics & Interests Behind The Rebel Momentum In Syria.

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Rebels’ momentum continues unchecked.

• Few days after taking over Aleppo, Turkey-backed rebels (HTS and SNA) are now on the way to capture Hama.

• In the meantime, Russia (in spite of having resumed its air campaigns) is yet to deploy resources to help Assad in earnest.

• In fact, Russia is reportedly evacuating key naval assets from its base in Tartus, Syria.

• (side note: This withdrawal hints at a strategic recalibration, and signals that Russia either doesn’t trust 1) that it can arrive at a non-aggression pact with advancing rebels in short order (if needed) and/or 2) that Turkey could be either unwilling or unable to rein in the rebels and safeguard Russian naval assets in Tartus.)

• So in these cables, we shall unpack the causes behind Rebels’ success and incentives and interests of Turkey (primary backers of the advancing HTS and SNA) in this new development in the Syrian theater.

• In part II later on, we shall discuss the broader regional implications and interests at stake.

Turkey’s Role in the Aleppo Offensive: A Calculated Partnership

• The swift takeover of Aleppo by Hayat Tahrir al-Sham (HTS) and the Syrian National Army (SNA) reflects a meticulously coordinated operation made possible by Turkey’s backing.

• For Ankara, the offensive was not merely a chance to extend its influence but also a means of leveraging HTS’s evolving capabilities and ambitions.

• Turkey’s role was multifaceted: logistical support, intelligence-sharing, and strategic guidance ensured HTS and the SNA could mount an offensive with remarkable speed and efficiency.

• However, Turkey also had a larger goal in mind—redefining HTS’s role in Syria’s future and using the group as a counterbalance to rivals like the Assad regime and Kurdish militias.

How HTS and the SNA Took Aleppo

• The operation unfolded in two parallel offensives:

• HTS’s Campaign in Northern Hama: Dubbed “Repelling Aggression,” - HTS advanced rapidly through the countryside, seizing 39 villages in 48 hours and creating a diversion that delayed regime reinforcements to Aleppo.

• This allowed HTS to consolidate control over Idlib and its surrounding regions.

• SNA’s Offensive in Aleppo: The SNA’s “Dawn of Freedom” operation targeted critical military infrastructure, including the Kuweires airbase and the Aleppo thermal power station.

• These positions fell with minimal resistance, as regime forces abandoned their posts or were overwhelmed by superior coordination and numbers.

• HTS and the SNA leveraged a combination of military precision and psychological warfare, exploiting the Assad regime’s low morale and fractured command structure.

• Sleeper cells within Aleppo coordinated with the rebels, disrupting regime defenses and facilitating a near-bloodless takeover.

Turkey’s Role in the Offensive.

• Turkey played a decisive role in enabling this victory:

• Logistical and Tactical Support: Turkish military advisors and intelligence networks ensured that HTS and the SNA could exploit gaps in the regime’s defenses.

• This included pinpointing strategic targets and coordinating attacks to maximize impact.

• Reinforcing Proxies: The SNA, a coalition of former Free Syrian Army factions and Islamist insurgents now aligned with Turkey, acted as the ground force for Ankara’s ambitions.

• Equipped and trained by Turkey, the SNA operates as an extension of Turkish interests in northern Syria.

• Political Narrative: Turkey framed the offensive as a necessary move to counter Kurdish militias and protect its southern border, deflecting attention from HTS’s involvement while legitimizing its actions to the international community.

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