Cables From The Diplomatic Frontlines
Initial geopolitical ripple effects of the war in Europe: signals, opportunities, and risks for the US.
First, the good news: as part of the new $800mn Defense package (announced on the very same day of Zelensky’s address to the US Congress: where he kept pushing for a no-fly zone), the US will now supply Ukraine with Switchblade 300 loitering drones (what these cables have advocated for repeatedly since December, and as recently as this Monday).
These are far smaller and faster drones that will prove especially helpful in urban warfare - making it harder for Russia to maintain its encirclement tactics around Kyiv, Kharkiv and Odessa.
In addition, there are also preliminary reports of Slovakia agreeing to supply Ukraine with S300 air defense SAM systems (also advocated for by these cables).
Then there are reports of a draft peace deal between Russia and Ukraine.
But so far, there are scant details - and besides, this is what the Ukrainian chief negotiator had to say on the matter:
It would not be surprising if there is truly a realistic chance for a peace deal in the making.
As suggested in Monday’s cables - after three weeks of this war, we have arrived at strategic crossroads: we will either see an actual, long-lasting ceasefire (and possibly a definitive peace deal), or a renewed Russian offensive (after a brief slowdown/lull necessary for the essential replenishment operations).
So far, there is little indication that Russia is serious about a deal (before trying its hand at another offensive).
Indeed, (in addition to troops from Syria and Armenia) Russia is actively involved in moving its far east Siberia-based units to replace its combat-fatigued units in Ukraine.
Of course, this could also be a tactical ploy: in order to secure maximum leverage, Russia may simply be demonstrating its will and capacity to continue the war (without having an actual desire to do so).
Either way, up until Russian troops start their withdrawal, Ukraine must always continue to operate under assumptions of the worst case scenario.
And whilst it is actively negotiating, the previous analysis stands - Ukraine must never concede to anything that essentially amounts to a loss of sovereignty (granting Putin a pyrrhic political victory).
Consequently, the US/NATO military support must continue to enable Ukraine to keep playing a strong hand in these talks.
But until we get further details and facts in place, it is worth taking a step back and looking at a larger geopolitical picture emerging from this war: and in particular, delving deeper into some emerging risks & opportunities for the US.
Although it has only been three weeks, and it is still early to pass sweeping conclusions on the ‘‘tectonic geopolitical shifts’’ (favorite activity of foreign policy strategists in DC/London/Brussels), certain specific adjustments are now quite apparent.
Moreover, there are now a number of countries that (by their reaction to the Russian invasion) have demonstrated their core interests and concerns.
Most of the major geopolitical players responded rather predictably - it was not surprising therefore, that the EU, UK, Canada, Australia or Japan would join the US in condemning (and imposing sanctions on) Russia.
It was also expected that China would (albeit passively) support Russia.
But the extent of the reactions was at least somewhat surprising.
It was most definitely surprising (and very welcome) that the EU would step up, and levy some serious sanctions on Russia, and even (for the first time in its history) purchase weapons to deliver to a warring party - the help delivered to Ukraine was impressive so far (certainly, more military aid and support was demanded/expected from NATO - but the EU did in fact impress most close observers with its activism).
Then there is China’s reaction to Putin’s conduct - again, it wasn’t shocking that Beijing would equivocate - but to actually refuse to vote in line with Russia (at the UN Security Council), was an extremely powerful signal of China’s displeasure.
(side note: it is still unclear whether China will respond affirmatively to Russia’s request for military aid - and if it does, whether this would be mere logistical/supply assistance, or would go further with a provision of lethal attack drones and missiles - Regardless, the US decision to publicize the matter, and warn China of serious consequences, was the correct move to make - Beijing is well aware that its aid Russia will not remain a secret and would further associate it with Putin’s pariah state)
There were also better than expected reactions from Germany and Turkey, and disappointing ones from the UAE and India.
Altogether (and with a caveat that it is still too early to form definitive conclusions), there are some significant signals, opportunities and risks - and DC would certainly be wise to pay attention to these.
Germany’s revival - incipient realignment in the European balance of power.
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