Cables From The Diplomatic Frontlines - New US response on China's role in Ukraine, and the F-16s vs Gripen debate.

Reader question: “What do you think of Blinken’s response to China’s role in brokering peace between Russia and Ukraine? He seemed to.. just welcome it without any pushback?”

• Here is the quote in question.

• Secretary of State, Antony Blinken: “In principle, there’s nothing wrong with that if ... China or other countries that have significant influence that are prepared to pursue a just and durable peace. … We would welcome that ... And that could be very beneficial. [emphasis added]”.

• And no, this is not a passive acceptance of Beijing’s role - far from it.

• In fact, this is exactly the right frame, since it:

• a) Demonstrates that America is not sore or bitter about a challenge to its leadership/ownership of the potential peace process - demonstrating and reaffirming that outcomes matter more than anything else;

• b) Reminds that this welcome is not limited to Beijing: in other words, any other country can also ‘‘chip in’’ - there is nothing special about China.

• This then serves to diminish any status/prestige gains from China’s progress, and simultaneously incentivizes other powers to grab their own share of the prestige/influence pie.

• c) Sets correct conditions for peace and therefore criteria for why the US may not back any possible negotiated outcome: the settlement must be just and durable: these are deliberately vague concepts that empower Washington with a lot of leeway in rejecting any Beijing-proposed plan - without appearing inconsistent: on the contrary, the US would be following the core principles that it had outlined from the very outset.

• In addition, we need to be careful about reflexive pushback of anything and everything coming from our enemies - just because a country is our adversary, it does not necessarily mean that we can ignore geopolitical realities of having to win the buy in of many hedging/swing states - also known as the Global South.

• The fact of the matter is that after brokering a normalization deal between Saudi Arabia and Iran (an agreement that was in reality, largely based on fundamentals and shaped by complex realities where China played little if any role - in fact, most of the preconditions were made possible due to America’s foreign policy and pressure on Iran) Beijing is experiencing a global reputational bump as a power broker (even as it is coming up from a very low base..).

• So America cannot afford to appear threatened or envious of this up and coming rival in diplomatic brokering - Washington’s credibility is on the line.

• Blinken’s stance had therefore achieved a careful balance of setting up correct conditionalities (for a later pushback) as well as an elegant display of true power: not being bothered by a challenger.

Fighter jets for Ukraine: F-16s vs Saab’s Gripen debate.