Cables From The Diplomatic Frontlines - alleged Iranian assassination plot on Trump: what it reveals and what should follow.

Alleged Plot on Trump’s life.

• According to a now widely aired CNN report the Secret Service ramped up security for Trump after US intelligence received information about an Iranian assassination plot on Trump.

• Now, according to CNN reporting based on multiple sources briefed on the matter there’s no indication that the plot is related to the Saturday’s attack.

• (side note: and all available evidence points to the initial theory that this was an unfortunate individual with significant psychological issues that decided to lash out when a Presidential candidate came to a rally 50 miles from his hometown.)

• But this revelation raises even more questions about the shooting and the security lapses that allowed a 20-year-old shooter to access a nearby rooftop and fire at Trump.

• (side note: It is unclear whether Trump’s campaign knew about the potential threat; the campaign directed CNN to the Secret Service.)

• House Republicans are already ramping up their investigation into the assassination attempt, with a GOP chair scheduling a public hearing with top officials next week.

• And it is almost certain that one of the main questions will be this: How could it be that the US secret service did not manage to secure a rooftop mere 400 to 500 feet away? Especially after a clear threat of an assassination attempt?

• If this is how the Secret Service conducts its operations after a threat of an Iranian assassination plot, how bad is the typical Secret Service conduct?

• Now, we don’t know how serious was this alleged plot - was it a chatter that was picked up by the US intel agencies and the USSS was informed as per the usual protocol? Or was this a real, well-planned plot with moving pieces already in motion?

• In other words, what was the actual threat level?

• If it is the latter, and this was indeed a serious threat, then we should expect to hear more from the White House - what steps were taken and/or are being taken in response to this alleged plot?

• But once again, before proceeding with further analysis it is important to add a caveat: a well-planned plot sanctioned from the very top of the Iranian regime is significantly different from an aspirational chat between a few mid-level Iranian agents gone rogue - that was subsequently picked up by US intel.

• The latter is still important to guard against - but if this wasn’t a well-planned plot sanctioned at the highest level (even if otherwise in the very early stages of its conception) then policy options/responses will differ significantly..

• With that said, Iran has previously been accused of plotting to kill former Trump officials John Bolton and Mike Pompeo - so it would not be too much of a stretch to assume that the Ayatollah regime worried about Trump’s likely return and tried to nip the future problems in the bud.

• As such it is worth pondering why exactly Iran would embark on such a foolish endeavor and what they would have hoped to gain - and at what level of exorbitant risk were they prepared to act?

The Calculus behind alleged Iranian plot