Cables From The Diplomatic Frontlines

Ukraine War & Dealing With The Solomon Islands Security Threat.

Reactions to Bucha massacre, ‘‘genocide’’ debates, new sanctions, diplomatic openings to do more, and Russia’s combat ineptitude & decline.

• Initial reactions & dilemmas.

• The global reactions to the Bucha massacre were predictably strong: full of outrage and calls for Russia to be held criminally responsible under the international law.

• For its part, the Kremlin did in fact (rather predictably) deny any complicity in a characteristically blatant and uncredible fashion: attacking Ukraine and the US for the ‘‘fake news’’ narratives and claiming that the whole massacre was staged to create a ‘‘hysteria’’ and use the ensuing moral outrage to impose even further sanctions on Russia.

• (side note: foreign minister Lavrov’s use of ‘‘hysteria’’ was probably not the wisest term to choose for their denial and disinformation campaign. Last time that phrase was used, it was to deny any plans to invade Ukraine…The Kremlin propagandists are now becoming so lazy and complacent that they do not use new words free from previous associations of outright deceit)

• Of course, no one will trust the statements of a country that for weeks now, has deliberately targeted high-rise residential buildings, shopping malls, a theater (with visual appeals and warnings that children were in fact sheltering in the building), maternity wards and schools - all of this civilian infrastructure was subjected to deliberate air strikes, artillery, and MLRS barrages.

• But unfortunately, and in addition to Russia’s outright propagandists and internet trolls, certain delusional media figures (and some even here in the US), have ‘‘only asked questions’’ about the veracity of these claims of massacre - luckily, there is now extensive visual evidence in the form of satellite imagery: showing clear massacre of civilians taking place during Russian occupation - and debunking the claims of ‘‘fake news’’.

• Naturally, Russia’s denials are worthless as a piece of evidence - but they are a good indicator of Putin’s state of mind, and do furthermore amount to additional warning signs of a protracted conflict: such brazen denials (instead of, for example empty promises to ‘‘investigate’’ the allegations) will only further anger Ukrainians and encourage a revenge-seeking national mood - political settlement will thus become even less likely.

• In addition, sanctions relief is now becoming increasingly unlikely - even if Russia was to in fact withdraw/agree to a settlement, there will be a strong support for lasting long-term sanctions to remain until Putin remains in power - something that may act as an perverse incentive for the Kremlin to continue the war until the bitter end: given the decreasing economic rationale for its early wrap up (more on that later below).

• Genocide debate.

• Many leaders and senior officials have been quick to point out that what happened in Bucha, crossed the line of a mere war crime and in fact, amounted to a genocide.

• Article II of the UN Genocide Convention offers the following description of a genocide:

• ‘‘A crime committed with the intent to destroy a national, ethnic, racial or religious group, in whole or in part.”

• It is easy to see how an ICC (or another ad-hoc tribunal) prosecutor could convincingly argue that Ukrainian civilians were murdered (a crime) due to their citizenship (national), and that 300+ civilians clearly amounted to “a group” - at least ‘‘in part’’.

• The most difficult part however, is going to be proving an intent: it would be exceptionally difficult to prove that this was not a massacre committed by a specific unit gone rouge - and that was instead ordered by the senior leadership.

• Unless certain communications were in fact intercepted by the Ukrainian/Western intel agencies, a direct proof of intent will be hard to establish.

• (side note: having said that, Putin’s speeches where he denies nationhood (and by implication, national citizenship) to Ukrainians could in fact amount to circumstantial evidence of intent).