Cables From The Diplomatic Frontlines

As the Iran nuclear deal talks approach culmination, Washington is tempted into making unacceptable concessions.

• These cables have always opposed the reinstatement of the JCPOA/Iran nuclear deal.

• Here, we shall not once again revisit the fundamentals and prosecute the argument - new readers are welcome and encouraged to delve in deeper into archives.

• But throughout the talks, these cables have repeatedly raised the alarm that the US was playing a strong hand in a very ineffective manner.

• DC strategists and policymakers have repeatedly closed their eyes to Iranian intransigence, actual missile strikes against the US and its allies, and even kidnapping attempts on the US soil.

• Added to this passive acquiescence, the US also displayed overeagerness to conclude the deal - precisely what encouraged the Ayatollahs to press their advantage and demand ever more unreasonable concessions.

• With any other party aware of its leverage, Iranian regime would have been overplaying its hand in these negotiations.

• But repeated and unearned concessions from DC have incentivized the Ayatollahs to amp up their demands - and as a result, this is exactly what they ended up doing.

• The Wall Street Journal came out with a report that apparently, a remaining major hurdle to the conclusion of this deal, is Iran’s insistence that their military arm - the IRGC (Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps) be removed from the State Department’s FTO (Foreign Terrorist Organizations) list.

• If agreed to, (and there are suggestions that the Biden admin is actively considering this) such a concession would lead to some extremely damaging consequences.

• And not (in the main) for the often-cited reasons: the IRGC can still be effectively sanctioned irrespective of the FTO designation.

• But there will certainly be some unacceptable strategic costs to this potential giveaway.

• We shall unpack them in turn, and explore what the US should be demanding for instead of offering this unearned and highly damaging concession.

• But first.

• What the FTO designation removal will not do