Cables From The Diplomatic Frontlines - Iran "ransom payment" debacle, and dealing with near-term dangers.

Background and backlash.

• The release of five detained Americans from Iranian custody would be a very welcome event - but the agreement to secure such an outcome did not escape controversy and political backlash in Washington.

• Major GOP Presidential candidates like Ron DeSantis and Mike Pence have denounced the Biden administration’s decision to release $16 billion in frozen Iranian assets in return for securing this release, labeling this move as America engaging in a ‘‘ransom payment’’ for the Ayatollah regime.

• (side note: $6 billion are Iranian funds frozen in South Korea, and further 10$ billion are funds held in Iraq - which the US will allow Iraq to use to pay off Baghdad’s debts for its purchases of Iranian natural gas)

• The fact that many notable members of the Iranian-American community joined such criticism, only adds to their legitimacy.

• But is this a fair criticism?

• These cables have always highlighted Biden admin’s weakness on Iran, but is this yet another instance of the current admin appeasing the regime?

• Or are the criticisms largely unfair?

• (side note: as in, in their current form. There is a different argument that can be made - and one in fact made further below - that it is ok to make such deals - but that we could have gotten much more in return)

• To assess this question fairly, we must first unpack the arguments against payments for the return of hostages.

• And the argument against the ‘‘ransomware payment’’ is indeed at fault for conflating several distinct issues into one..

• We can then look at the past several months, and evaluate recent Iranian moves, and evaluate Washington’s response to these - the media-driven perception and actual facts may not correspond very well.

• Finally, we have to consider the upcoming turning points - and discuss what needs to be done to rein in Iran from further belligerence and military capacity-building.

• 1. The ransomware debacle - valid arguments based on largely faulty assumptions.