Cables From The Diplomatic Frontlines - Russia in 2024: domestic political threats that will haunt Putin in the new year.

Domestic political threats to Putin in 2024.

• We frequently highlight Russia’s gradual move towards a full-on war mobilization and the threats that these pose to Ukraine.

• In 2024, Russia is set to produce thousands of drones, tanks and artillery ammo, as it further mobilizes its industrial capacity and redirects resources from production of consumer goods to military armaments.

• And all of this is on top of hundreds of thousands of soviet 152mm shells that Russia had secured from North Korea (and their numbers will probably rise in 2024) and a solid pipeline of drones from Iran - which is now considering a supply of short-range (approx 130 miles) Fateh-110 missiles ballistic missiles (and with the threat of an outright Hizbullah vs Israel was now lessened, such a transfer is even more likely - since Tehran’s proxy will not need a full-on focus and military support).

• Add to all this, Russia is increasing its defense budget and capacity going well into 2024.

• Russia is revving up its engines to get on a proper war-production regime.

• Next year, it will spend ($118bn) or 6% of its GDP on defense, a highest share in decades (freezing healthcare and social spends in the meantime) - and a 3x increase from the expenditure in 2021, and fully 70% more than the figure planned for this year.

• There is also a 30-40 % surge in (the purchasing managers’ index) in military-related industries since January 2023.

• Consequently, the longstanding assumption that Putin wants an out is not necessarily relevant today.

• He is revving up Russia’s war engines - some of it is to signal staying power (and discourage/dissuade the West - emphasizing the futility of backing Ukraine).

• Finally, Russia is also getting better at evading export control sanctions (to secure critical semiconductors) and ever larger share of its oil exports are sold above the G7 price cap of $60 (with virtually no oil in October sold below the cap).

• All of this is to say that Putin has a lot going for him in 2024, and with signs of fraying support for Ukraine in the west (with every additional aid package facing ever more mounting challenges amidst the ‘‘stalled offensive’’ narrative), one can see why he might be overconfident going into next year.

• With all that said however, some perspective is also in order - Russia is also facing an economy redirected to serve the war, with hundreds of thousands of highest productivity talent missing (evading the draft).

• Its military edge could diminish further - if the planned/promised US/EU aid goes through, Kyiv receives its F-16s (and more air defenses and long-range missiles), and the West helps Ukraine to overcome Russia’s formidable EW (electronic warfare) capabilities.

• (side note: Russia’s EW capabilities are exceptional - perhaps their best performing system in this war. Systems like ‘‘Shipovnik Aero’’ are currently dispersed throughout the frontlines/every 10 km and misdirect/disable thousands of Ukrainian drones and precision GMLRS missiles and guided M982 Excalibur shells. Here is a good Royal United Services Institute (RUSI) report).

• So there are a number of economic and military challenges that could challenge Russia in 2024.

• But in this post, we shall focus on domestic political challenges that could cause headaches to Putin and his regime.

March 2024 Presidential elections bring uncomfortable levels of uncertainty.