Cables From The Diplomatic Frontlines - Iranian still to respond and evaluating Hezbollah's current capabilities.

Waiting for Iranian response.

• A lot has happened since the double assassination in late July.

• In addition to the Supreme Leader Khamenei openly promising revenge, Iran also released multiple promo-style videos showcasing their missile and drone capabilities. 

• Implication is that another barrage of missiles (similar to those in mid April) will be forthcoming. 

• (side note: or perhaps this is a deception campaign and Iran is actually planning to respond with its own targeted assassinations - although it is unlikely that their security/intel agency has the ability to penetrate deep counter-intel security barriers of the Israeli Shin-Bet.)

• In addition, what was also notable was that Iran immediately blamed Hamas leader's security detail for the massive security breach.

• (side note: that apparently, he has been too careless with his phone use and so gave up his location.. as if assassins couldn't simply tail him from the inauguration event earlier that day)

• This is of course largely a nonsensical proposition, since if what was advanced by Iran was true and that this was in fact a ‘‘short-range” projectile launched from outside the compound (their official claim - although current evidence points to remote detonation of a bomb placed in the guesthouse well in advance), then the IRGC is surely primarily to blame for this security breach - if Mossad agents can come in this close to the compound of a VIP, then no foreign dignitary/proxy leader is safe even in Tehran. 

• (side note: in reality, this is also a signal to all of the Iranian leadership, including the President and the IRGC leads - that no one is unreachable and totally safe.) 

• But there is another useful side to blaming Hamas for this security failure: removing the urgency to respond - for if 1) a foreign leader was killed, 2) this security failure was primarily caused by a Hamas slip up, and 3) no breach of air space was conducted/no missile strikes were launched, and the assassination was essentially a covert op, then is this really such an egregious violation of Iranian sovereignty that necessitates a direct response?

• It is a violation of sovereignty for sure, but not nearly as significant as an overt military action.

• Consider this: Mossad has committed similar assassinations chasing PLO terrorists all over the world.

• If France and Norway didn’t respond directly with military action on Israel after Mossad assassinations, were they really being weak?

• Or what about the 2010 assassination of Mahmoud al-Mabhouh (of a Hamas’s Al-Qassam brigade) in Dubai? (where EU and Australian passports were used to hide the identity of Mossad agents).

• Obviously, the UAE didn’t launch missile strikes in response..

• All of this is to say that it is possible that Iran would quietly delay any possible retaliation by declaring the intent to respond at the ‘‘time and manner’’ of their choosing: they have plenty of material to use for media spin and to avoid walking into Netanyahu’s trap of dragging Iran into a regional war with Israel and potentially, even with the US.

• But the situation on the Israel vs Hezbollah border remains tense, so it is worth taking a look at the potential current capabilities of Iran’s crown jewel proxy.

Evaluating Hezbollah’s capacity against Israel.