Cables From The Diplomatic Frontlines - Iran's new President and Israel's medium-term strategy going forward.

• A lot of pundits in the west have over-emphasized the "reformist" potential of Iran's new President-elect Mansour Pezeshkian.

• Often-quoted early signs of potential for normalization and a deal is that Abbas Araghchi, a former nuclear negotiator and deputy foreign minister, is a potential candidate for Pezeshkian's foreign minister.

• Araghchi's appointment has sparked hopes for renewed diplomatic dialogue between Iran and the West to address the nuclear issue and regional tensions with the US.

• (side note: conversely, the victory of Saeed Jalili, the most extremist presidential candidate, could have bolstered Israel's stance against engaging with Iran, advocating for increased pressure on Tehran)

• First things first, it is important to reiterate that Iran's President doesn't possess sufficient executive power and enough of a leeway to enact meaningful change to the country's foreign policy.

• As previously discussed, Iranian Presidents generally implement foreign policy set at a grander level by the Supreme Leader Khamenei himself.

• And even when it comes to the implementation of this general policy, his purview is generally limited to outside of the country's immediate backyard in the Middle East - this is an area generally reserved for Iran's Revolutionary guard.

• So when it comes to major powers like Russia or Iran, the President and the foreign affairs ministry has a wider latitude than policy in relation to the Middle East - and especially in relation to the Iranian proxies - a purview largely in control of the Quds forces of the Revolutionary Guards/IRGC.

• Indeed a great summary of this arrangement can be seen in a leaked voice memo from 2021 that embarrassed the regime - where the outgoing Foreign Minister Javad Zarif complained how the IRGC tied his hands on the Middle East.

• And when it comes to other states like Russia and China - once again, the President follows the Supreme Leader's direction.

• Following the US withdrawal from the nuclear deal/JCPOA 2018 under the Trump admin, (and when Europeans rejoined the sanctions- whether willingly or because they had no options) Khamenei urged Iranian politicians to focus on the neighbors to the East and North - since westerners could not be trusted.

• And this policy has been implemented gradually by Rouhani, and then by Raisi (and went into overdrive when the Ukraine war created a strategic alliance with Russia).

Israel’s near-term objectives.