Escalatory Dangers Of The India - Pakistan Clash.

April’s Massacre, Water Threats, and Atomic Brinkmanship Point to a Dangerous New Phase

• The Kashmir crisis is no longer frozen.

• It is thawing - and what lies beneath is radioactive: a devastating terrorist attack in the Baisaran Valley on April 22 has jolted Kashmir - and the India-Pakistan relationship - out of uneasy silence.

• At least 28 civilians were killed, including 25 Indians, one Nepali, and two Emiratis, when heavily armed militants struck a group of tourists in Indian-administered Kashmir.

• It was the bloodiest attack since 2019 and the deadliest on tourists since the insurgency in Kashmir began in 1989.

• The Resistance Front, allegedly a proxy for the Pakistan-based Lashkar-e-Taiba (LeT), claimed responsibility before later retracting the statement, citing a hack.

• Indian authorities insist the group was behind the assault and accused Pakistan of involvement (although they are yet to provide sound proof of this claim).

• Islamabad denies any role. But the fallout has been swift and severe.

India has thus far retaliated by:

• Revoking diplomatic visas for Pakistani nationals.

• Withdrawing staff from its High Commission in Islamabad.

• Suspending the Indus Waters Treaty, a critical bilateral agreement on river management.

• Imposed a direct and indirect import ban on all goods from Pakistan.

• Publicly considered military options, including missile strikes, drone raids, and potential air operations.

Pakistan’s Defense Minister, Khawaja Asif, warned of an “imminent Indian attack,” adding: “We are prepared and we will respond.”

• Both sides have exchanged small arms fire along the Line of Control.

• Drones have been intercepted. Jets scrambled.

• Strategic signaling has resumed, and Pakistan has test launched the Abdali surface-to-surface ballistic missile with a range of 450 km.

• And the specter of escalation is again on the horizon.

When Deterrence Almost Failed: The 2019 Playbook Revisited