How Trump Admin Must Capitalize On The Potential Turkey - PKK Peace.

Seizing the Opportunity for Lasting Peace.

• Last week, we discussed how the jailed PKK leader Abdullah Öcalan has called for the group’s militants to lay down arms and disband, marking the most significant peace overture in a decade.

• His statement follows months of backchannel diplomacy between Ankara and Kurdish intermediaries, as Turkey’s leadership tests the waters for a negotiated end to the 40-year insurgency.

• If the PKK fully disarms, it would end one of the Middle East’s longest-running conflicts, which has claimed over 40,000 lives since the 1980s.

• Öcalan framed his call as a “historical responsibility”, signaling that the PKK’s objectives should now be pursued through political means rather than armed struggle.

• While Ankara has not officially announced negotiations, President Recep Tayyip Erdoğan and his nationalist ally Devlet Bahçeli have given subtle indications that they are open to a process.

• Bahçeli, long a hardline opponent of the PKK, unexpectedly proposed in late 2024 that Öcalan could be granted parole if the PKK renounces violence and dissolves—a move that shocked even Turkish nationalists.

• Erdoğan cautiously praised the proposal as “courageous and wise.”

• The timing is no coincidence: with the insurgency weakening, Turkey has an opportunity to permanently reshape its Kurdish policy and regional power dynamics.

• This week, we shall discuss the U.S. role in capitalizing on this historic opportunity.

• Now, the Trump admin is abandoning the traditional U.S.-led rules-based global order.

• Never mind that this very order was created by Washington itself, and in addition to idealism, served core U.S. interests - by shaping the world affairs in predictable, rules-based fashion that served the prosperity and security of U.S. citizens first and foremost - Trump admin nevertheless insists on abandoning this in favor of ultra-pragmatic, transactional, and more immediate America-first policies.

• As such, the Trump admin will need to see concrete practical gains to be made from being involved in this Turkey-Kurdish terrorists peace process.

• And there are at least three concrete gains for Washington:

• 1) With Kurdish separatism (and PKK terrorism) ending its armed struggle phase, there will be less violence and more stability - reducing the need for future U.S. involvement;

• 2) Stability and peace within Syria will be more likely to solidify - and the past week’s pro-Assad vs anti-alawite violence shows that the country needs all the help it can to avoid further destabilization.

• A comprehensive Turkey - PKK peace deal will limit opportunity for third-party interference (from Iran and Israel) and to cause further destabilization in the country.

• 3) Removal of one of the main irritants in Turkey - U.S. relations.

• If the PKK renounces violence and Kurdish fighters in Syria distance themselves from the PKK, Turkey’s opposition to the SDF could lessen, removing a key obstacle in U.S.-Turkey ties.

• Consequently, and for all these reasons, the United States has a pivotal but delicate role to play in supporting this nascent peace, given its alliances with Turkey (a NATO ally) and Kurdish groups (key partners against ISIS).

• The U.S. has both strong interests and capabilities/influence to shape the outcome here.

• Washington should encourage the peace process robustly yet tactfully, balancing relations with all sides.

• The U.S. has an opening to shape this peace into a stabilizing force.

• Washington should: