Israel - Hamas ceasefire deal: why now? Part I: Incentives facing Hamas.

• After months of negotiations, the ceasefire deal between Hamas and Israel first pushed by the Biden admin back in May 2024, was finally accomplished after a direct intervention and pressure from Trump and his team (most importantly Special Envoy to Middle East Steve Witkoff).

• A simple but for test proves that Trump’s intervention was decisive.

• Without him, there is no good reason to believe that after 15 months of war, a ceasefire agreement would take place at this specific time.

• Trump provided both the necessary push and a new mix of incentives and disincentives to get this deal over the line.

• The deal has three distinct phases:

• 1) Phase one: ceasefire initiation.

• Hamas to release 33 Israeli hostages, including women, children, and men over 50, in exchange for approximately 1,900 Palestinian prisoners.

• Israel to allow hundreds of aid trucks carrying food and fuel to enter Gaza through border crossings in Israel and Egypt to address immediate humanitarian needs.

• 2) Phase two: Permanent ceasefire negotiations.

• Discussions commenced during the initial ceasefire period to establish a permanent cessation of hostilities.

• Hamas to release the remaining Israeli hostages, including soldiers and civilians, in exchange for additional Palestinian prisoners.

• The Israel Defense Forces (IDF) to begin a phased withdrawal from Gaza, maintaining control over key routes during the process.

• 3) Phase Three: Long-term Resolution and Reconstruction.

• Hamas commits to returning the remains of deceased Israeli hostages.

• A comprehensive reconstruction plan for Gaza is outlined, focusing on rebuilding infrastructure and facilitating the return of displaced residents.

• The success of this phase hinges on sustained cooperation between Israel, Hamas, and international mediators to ensure stability and long-term peace.

• For now, the ceasefire agreement broadly holds, and three Israeli hostages and hundreds of Palestinian detainees have already been released.

• Whether this can continue and a ceasefire can hold depends on the mix of incentives and disincentives that both sides face.

• As such, we need to examine the initial incentives that pushed the parties towards an agreement - and why this happened now vs when it was tried before in mid 2024.

• Today, we shall unpack a mix of incentives & disincentives facing Hamas.

Incentives pushing Hamas to say yes to the deal.