Kyiv Innovates, Kremlin Repeats: Ukraine's Naval Breakthroughs And Putin's Maximalist Fantasies
Ukraine Just Changed Naval Warfare Forever
In a historic first, Ukrainian forces achieved what no military has done before: downed Russian fighter jets using naval drones armed with air-to-air missiles.
On May 2, Ukraine’s Main Intelligence Directorate (GUR) confirmed that two Russian Su-30 aircraft were shot down over the Black Sea using AIM-9 Sidewinder missiles fired from Magura-7 unmanned surface vessels - a feat publicly confirmed by GUR head Lt. Gen. Kyrylo Budanov on May 4.
This fusion of naval stealth and aerial lethality represents a technological leap in asymmetric warfare.
It demonstrates Ukraine’s continued adaptation under pressure, and its growing capability to contest Russia's airpower over maritime zones long dominated by the Russian Black Sea Fleet and Air Force.
The naval drone becomes not just a surveillance or detonation tool - but for the first time ever a mobile surface-to-air missile launcher.
The implications are seismic. In an era where sea control is increasingly contested by non-traditional actors, Kyiv has just invented the blueprint for a new class of multi-domain, low-cost, AI-guided warfare.
The Magura-7’s success will likely ripple across NATO and beyond.
(side note: Iran will probably try to replicate this technology and try to fill the Persian gulf with these drones in case of major confrontation with the U.S. down the line.)
Russia’s Offensive Bleeds Out: 40,000+ Monthly Casualties and Strategic Stagnation
While Putin lauds mythical “reserves” and speaks of manpower abundance, the facts on the battlefield tell another story.
According to the U.K.’s Defence Intelligence agency, Russia has likely sustained around 160k casualties in 2025 (averaging over 40,000 personnel losses per month) - a grim acceleration compared to prior years (where the numbers were typically lower than 30k a month).
Yet the Kremlin’s territorial advances have slowed dramatically.
In places like Toretsk, Ukrainian forces are not only holding but regaining ground, reversing Russian momentum in pockets that matter.
To be sure, Russian units pushed Ukrainian defenders back from parts of Kursk - but that victory was underpinned not by elite Russian capacity, but a growing reliance on North Korean-supplied munitions.
It’s a disturbing trend for Moscow: victory now depends increasingly on autarkic partnerships with rogue regimes.
So much for VP Vance’s argument that Russia is unbeatable..
Putin’s Ceasefire Bluff and the Ideology of Endless War
On the eve of the May 9 Victory Day parade, Putin offered Ukraine a three-day ceasefire, framed not as a humanitarian pause but more as a ceremonial requirement - to secure optics, ensure guest safety, and maintain internal prestige during the parade’s broadcast.
(side note: The May 9 parade is shaping up to be a farce of optics. Serbian President Vučić and Slovakia’s PM Robert Fico, both formerly seen as Russia-friendly, have fallen mysteriously ill just ahead of the Kremlin’s big day. One suspects they will “recover” promptly after May 9. The Kremlin’s guest list is thinning. This is a good signal that even after Trump’s attacks against Ukraine, associating with Russia remains politically radioactive.)
In response, President Zelensky issued a brilliant diplomatic countermove: instead, he proposed a 30-day ceasefire - ten times longer.
The logic was clear and surgical: call Putin’s bluff, shift moral responsibility back to Moscow, and publicly demonstrate Ukraine’s willingness to de-escalate (important - to keep Ukraine out of the way from Trump’s social media attacks).
So far, the Kremlin has not responded.
And that silence speaks volumes.
Ukraine’s strategy here is effective: match every token Russian ceasefire with a more serious one.
If Moscow rejects or ignores it, the mask continues to slip - and the West, including Trump, sees who the obstacle to peace really is - who is really tapping him along.
Meanwhile, Putin continues to insist - publicly and without modification - that his original war aims remain unchanged.
In a May 4 documentary aired on state-run Rossiya-1, he claimed Russia has the resources and strength to bring the war to a “logical conclusion” that meets “the result Russia needs” while expressing ‘‘hope’’ that this does not include the use of nuclear weapons.
Now, recall what the goals of the “special operation’’ are that Putin now announces he can attain:
1) Full demilitarization of Ukraine.
2) Regime change in Kyiv.
3) Blocking NATO integration.
4) Permanent territorial concessions far beyond current Russian occupation.
In short: total Ukrainian surrender. And nothing short of it.
Realistically, Putin can (unfortunately) only attain the objective of blocking Ukraine’s accession to NATO.
The rest of this wish list is delusional.
But this doesn’t stop Putin or his Foreign Minister from making such maximalist demands.
He must surely understand that with the state of his economy going forward, and difficulty of recruiting more soldiers at an ever higher cost, and dwindling hardware (like tanks, armored vehicles etc - which perish much faster than they can be replaced) Russia couldn’t possibly hope to attain these objectives.
This could only ever happen if both Europe and the U.S. were to abandon Ukraine.
And this is not happening.
So either Putin is 1) deluded, or 2) he is bluffing and trying to oversell his confidence and staying power: hoping to get Trump to pressure Ukraine into further concessions.
But delusion cannot be ruled out either.
Increasingly, the Kremlin is framing this war in metaphysical terms: “Each citizen is the state,” Putin claimed, “Russia’s future depends on him.”
He is preparing the Russian public - ideologically and emotionally - for a multi-year war, one potentially followed by confrontation with NATO itself.
This is the Putin Doctrine today: not defense of Russia, but preservation of the imperial project through perpetual sacrifice.
His messaging aligns with an ever-growing militarization of Russian civil society:
Declaring 2025 the "Year of the Defender of the Fatherland".
Elevating war veterans as a new political elite.
Expanding military-patriotic youth education.
Anchoring national identity to battlefield sacrifice.
This may not be a man preparing for negotiation.
It can very well be the case that he is preparing his country for a generational conflict.
Finally, Action from Trump: Patriots and F-16s in Play
After months of ambiguity, the Trump administration appears to be taking its first concrete steps beyond rhetorical support for Ukraine.
A Patriot air defense system, previously stationed in Israel, is now being refurbished and redeployed to Ukraine, according to U.S. officials.
In parallel, some unconfirmed reports suggest that Ukrainian Antonov AN-124 cargo planes are loading F-16 aircraft parts, possibly for final transfer to the Ukrainian Air Force.
Furthermore, Trump’s outreach to Turkish President Erdogan (who invited Trump to Turkey after their phone call) signals the possibility of seeking Ankara’s unique leverage on Ukraine-Russia war: sanctions enforcement, drone and armored vehicles exports, and Black Sea logistics.
If followed through, Turkey could be a decisive enabler of Ukrainian defense - just as it was in 2022.