Mid-weekly overview
Taliban
Trump is putting US interests in jeopardy by removing troops without clear strategy
Taliban will get a wrong message: do whatever you like, we don’t have a strategy to deal with you-we will only care about domestic electorate
Biden will need to deal with this mess asap
Resume air strikes until they comply with February peace deal
Cut their funding - most of the Taliban funding comes from road taxes. Send military patrols on those roads and make it harder for them to collect road tax revenue. This will hurt. They will be back at the negotiation table.
Taiwan
US Admiral Michael Studeman’s Taiwan visit was correct - low investment /high-impact tactic: it is important to remind China that US is actively monitoring the situation
More needs to be done to increase costs of any potential military invasion of Taiwan
Taiwan’s air and naval defense must be strengthened to such an extent that China must be discouraged from a military option
THAADs should be moved there too-to protect from ballistic missiles which would surely be used against Taiwan’s more conventional air defense and command/control centers - if the invasion was to take place
Another great move: war games in tandem with Australia and Japan-specifically focusing on naval invasion defense exercises
Saudi Arabia/Israel Rapprochement
Rumors re Netanyahu’s secret visit to SA were not denied by either country on the highest level
This is unprecedented. Shows that the two countries are prepping for the Biden administration that wants to engage Iran once again with the nuclear deal
The move is designed to show a united front for Biden admin: that harder line is possible/middle eastern countries could rally around a harder line-be bolder Biden
Another purpose of this move is probably discussion re pre-emptive strike to trap the Biden Admin into a harder line
What should Biden admin do? First, avoid that trap. Start with a harder line on Iran- reassure allies
Second: use SA/Israel’s readiness for war with Iran as a leverage in negotiations with Iran: hey Iran you either concede way more now [than in original deal] or I will struggle to contain SA/Israel attack
What more concessions? Removal of Iranian proxies from Iraq and Syria. Reduction of attack navy forces in the Strait of Hormuz