Midweekly Overview
Estimated Reading Time: 4 mins, 19 sec.
China vs Australia: Fake Soldier Photo Incident
China posted a fake photo of an Australian soldier murdering an Afghan child.
Photo was posted on an official Chinese government twitter account.
At first, this brazen act looks quite dumb on China’s part. Why share an obviously fake photo that will be called out by Australia?
Well… exactly for that reason. China calculated that both:
1) a lot of people would see it on the official twitter account and conclude that ‘‘surely this must be true if an official government account is sharing this’’ [whilst ultimately only a smaller % of this audience will become aware of an Australian rebuttal] and that,
2) Australia’s outrage will only draw a bigger international attention to the whole issue. This would then remind the whole world that [even if this particular picture was fake] Australian special forces did in fact engage in criminal conduct whilst stationed in Afghanistan.
These are tactics. Now onto strategic questions. Why Australia? why now?
Several reasons:
1) Test Chinese open propaganda techniques on a western nation. For China, Australia stands for everything that US and UK stands for. Therefore, it is tempting to see how a Chinese disinformation/propaganda warfare might impact a ‘‘western’’ liberal democracy.
How would this affect Australia internally? Will it reignite debate at home? or would they rally ‘‘around the flag’’ and be steadfast in their resolve against Chinese propaganda warfare.
2) Ideally damage public morale and support of the military as an institution in Australia. This would then put more pressure on the government to be less adventurist in their foreign policy and use of the military forces. How wonderful for China - a country that wants to dominate the entire Pacific?
3) Test the incoming US administration. Will they really be the ‘‘politics as usual’’ team and stand by their allies in this [so far] rhetorical warfare? On this account, Biden should have responded immediately. He should have sent a clear message to China that he would in fact not tolerate disinformation campaign against an allied nation. And no, future National Security Adviser, Jake Sullivan’s ‘‘standing shoulder to shoulder’’ statement re Australia was not sufficient. Biden himself!
How should Australia respond?
1) it should use the fact that ‘‘WeChat’’ blocked its PM on the platform to its own advantage - Australia should remind the whole world that Chinese companies are not independent of their state apparatus.
Another opportunity to hammer down Huawei and other companies that want to dominate western markets whilst [laughably] claiming independence from the Communist party.
This should be a new proactive propaganda campaign.
2) change the subject of Australian war crimes. Throw the older meat on the table : reignite China’s poor record on Uyghur human rights. Get other western countries to join in this renewed campaign. Get big brands that source their raw materials/ labor from the Xinjiang region commit to look for alternative supply chains. Make it loud and public.
Iran playing hardball with incoming Biden administration:
Iran’s parliament is pushing through a bill that would suspend U.N. inspections of its nuclear facilities and require the government to boost its uranium enrichment if European signatories to the 2015 nuclear deal do not provide relief from oil and banking sanctions.
Now, important to note that the bill would also need to be approved by the Guardian Council - their constitutional watchdog.
Why is Iran doing this?
1) Testing Biden - how would he react to the proposed move? soft diplomacy? try to convince Iran to get back to the negotiation table? or swift retaliation?
From their perspective, this is a good and reversible test. If they sense a strong pushback [and a net loss], their constitutional guardian council or even later on, the very supreme leader could always override their parliament.
2) Divide and conquer. They want to see how united and cohesive Europe will be. Especially now that the context is quite different. UK is leaving the EU. France is getting more active and bolder under Macron. Sometimes way too independent and confrontational with the US.
Will there be a two-speed reaction? one power may be standing alone? or would they as a collective, not even demonstrate a strong pushback? which brings us to..
3) To what extent will the European powers coordinate with US? Will they react as Biden wants them to? or will they go independent this time?
What should US do? remain steadfast. It is a test and a bluff.
Iran has a terrible hand in this game. Their finances are in a dire state. Pressure on the government and public discontent is growing with every day. They lost one of their key scientists.
If this was not enough.. two regional enemies - Israel and Saudi Arabia could very possibly engage in open military confrontation with Iran.
This is a weak hand for Iran and a strong one for the US.
Biden should not accept this play. He should use the fact that there are countries ready and itching to invade Iran as a leverage to push them in the desired direction.
No clear strategy has been announced to date by the incoming administration.
But if it is not going to be strikes/further sanctions…
If Biden prefers rapprochement, then he should at least engage on his terms - not entertaining their absurd bluffs.
Turkey/US clash at the NATO conference
Pompeo’s basic claim that Turkish purchase of Russian S400 was a gift to Russia is technically correct.
But, Turkey is using their own Aselsan software for S400’s radar command/control. Threats to the F35 are exaggerated [even if possible].
This is not the main point though. Turkey’s President recently made it very clear that he wanted a rapprochement with the US.
This is a good time for renewed friendship.
Turkey can act as a bulwark in the middle East.
Helpful against Iran and Russia.
It has proven itself as the most militarily assertive NATO ally that did not blink twice before shooting down a Russian fighter jet in 2015.
Turkey is also a ‘‘portfolio diversification’’ opportunity for the US in the middle east.
Other allies like Israel [an actual ally] and Saudi Arabia [an ally of convenience] are actively trying to trap US foreign policy vis-a-vis Iran.
Turkish alliance can provide an opportunity to diversify local reliance on these two-making sure they behave in US interest.
UK/Hong Kong/China
HK [read China’s communist party] jailed a prominent human rights campaigner, Joshua Wong.
It is clear at this point that China will continue to shamelessly violate the 1997 handover deal.
UK should retaliate with significant sanctions against China - UK’s soft power /prestige/reputation is on the line.
They might be planning that already.
Why else invest so much in Navy, commit to sending an aircraft carrier to Asia, and increase spending on offensive cyber warfare resources? Bringing out the National Cyber Force from the shadows?
Why do all that if:
1) not to prep for a potential conflict with China?
2) openly too!
Good. UK is acting like an adult in the atrophied western liberal democracy league.
A steadfast, reliable ally for the US.