Midweekly Overview
Estimated Reading Time: 4 mins, 29 sec.
German resolve on Iran
German Foreign Minister Heiko Maas called for ‘‘nuclear plus’’ approach when taking another stab at JCPOA.
As readers already know, I have repeatedly argued that Iran has a weak hand and that Biden admin should consequently push for more concessions.
Germans get it.
Even after Iran sent fuel tankers [largest shipment since May] to Venezuela [in defiance of the U.S. sanctions of Maduro] and promised to reinstall uranium enrichment centrifuges [clear violation of JCPOA].
Germans still get that this is bluff vol 2 and a clear overcompensation to their FM ‘s eager pleadings last week.
Iranian leadership recognized that FM’s enthusiasm was a diplomatic faux pas.
This blunder most probably irritated proud [and currently in rage - surely..] Quds force generals.
I am confident that these two plays were not suggested by Rouhani himself.
Nonetheless, Iranian political structure made these overcompensating acts inevitable.
One of the important caveats that game theorists always forget, is that each state is actually limited in practical options by its own political superstructure.
Political systems impose their own norms.
A famous joke [and probably only a slight exaggeration] : no one wanted to be the first person that would stop clapping for Stalin - so they all kept at it until starving themselves to death.
Imagine Iranian power players all in one room. One of them suggests sending fuel to Venezuela - to stick it to a common enemy. Who would argue against this?
And on what grounds? Iranian leaders may hope that the general public might find relief in JCPOA [with its promise of sanctions relief/money coming in].
But to each other they mainly justify their normative arguments based on national honor and prestige.
In other words, JCPOA is not an end in itself and arguing for it as means to prosperity is not effective in the highest echelons of power.
Money must always be a means in Iranian leadership - a means for more influence, funding proxies etc.
Biden admin will have to take this into account. When demanding concessions on ballistic missiles or proxy activities, they would have to offer some face saving alternative.
An alternative way for Iran to feel like they did not lose too much prestige.
What could this be?
As an example: U.S. may agree not to sell F35s to UAE.
That move is already pretty unpopular, and frankly few more F35s in UAE hands would not change the balance on the ground - at least not drastically.
Also UAE would probably just turn to Russia and buy their Su - 34s [or something from China]. So no - they would not be lacking in the modern weapons department against Iran.
And no - does not mean we would lose them to the aforementioned states - only U.S. could ever step in to protect them in that region and they bloody well know that.
But back to Germany. They are proving to be a good E3 partner country. Biden should expand on that and involve them more on Russia too.
What’s on Putin’s mind these days?
A lot.
Propping up Lukashenko
Trying to overthrow Moldova’s new President - now that she wants Russian troops out
‘‘Peacekeeping’’ in Karabakh region
Placing S300s on Kuril islands to deter Japan in hydrocarbon exploration game.
So not a surprise that he would sign the new legislation allowing Russia to trump international law and obligations [when conflicting with the national legislation].
Technically this is normal for a sovereign state.
And not that Russia was sticking to its international obligations prior to this law anyways. A joke.
BUT this gives some excuse to some states that do not want to engage in sanctions or gang on Russia. Now they can cite this pathetic new piece of legislation. That Russia is not doing anything wrong - at least not according to their own laws.. International community has a short memory on major transgressions.
It has been only 6 years since mysterious little green men invaded Crimea.
Yet only recently some states considered bringing Russia back into G7 [making it G8].
Given this context, the United Nation’s limp recent move on Russian occupation of Crimea was truly pathetic.
UN General Assembly adopted a resolution, calling Russia to end its ‘‘temporary occupation’’ of Crimea ‘‘without delay’’
Temporary Occupation?
What part of invading a peninsula, placing your army there, holding a fake referendum and giving out Russian passports suggests the temporary nature of this endeavor?
This sounds like a bullying victims in middle school pleading with the bully to ‘‘stop being too rough during very much fun and definitely fully consensual and not at all one-sided play’’
What do you think Putin thought of that statement?
Rhetorical.
UN needs to start calling things as they are.
That is step one to reclaiming lost credibility and respect.
Also don’t use terms you cannot define.
What constitutes delay?
Maybe for Putin, Russia holding it for 50 more years is not a delay but a prelude to a process that may or may not end with return of the peninsula?
What would be a better statement?
Easy: ‘‘UN calls Russia to end its clearly unlawful and forceful occupation of Crimea’’
Without adding any time limits though. And without saying ‘‘immediately’’ or ‘‘without delay’’
No use in adding terms where you cannot actually force their fulfillment - further damaging your credibility.
Going back to Moldova - excellent opportunity to stick it to Putin.
Why not invite Moldova to joint military exercises with Poland and Baltic states?
That would provide nice padding for the current pro-western President.
A president that wants to do something extremely useful for the U.S. - removing Russian troops from Moldova and therefore from the western shores of the Black Sea.
Since Russian controlled Moldovan parliament passed a bill to remove intelligence agency oversight from the President’s prerogative, the U.S. should do something strong to support her and her political party.
OSCE reps in tandem with EU reps on the ground to ensure oversight of the whole process and safety of the [pro president] protesters.
And frankly give her money. Her organization, party, grassroots movements are not well-funded.
After all we are in the business of Realpolitik here. Think of it as an investment into removing [at least some] Russian troops from the Eastern Europe.
The more money is spent into removing Russia from frozen conflict regions [a good place to start military conflicts - hence Putin’s not so weird fetish for them] the better are the chances that extra military spending will never be needed in fighting an actual war with them.
Turkey - EU conflict over Mediterranean Gas Exploration
EU considers sanctions when Turkish President Erdogan calls for negotiations.
Erdogan has mastered the art of appearing reasonable.
In this case he actually is too.
On the other hand.. EU doggedly defending Greek interests is understandable.
After so much damage to the institution, and with UK’s final attempts to gain something at the negotiation table, EU would be foolish to annoy one of its member states and therefore potentially cause a break in its united front vis-a-vis Boris Johnson.
Speaking of..
Great opportunity for the UK to reassert itself over EU. Potentially gaining some leverage in negotiations too [though very unlikely].
From now on, it will always be in the British interest for the EU to be maximally weak and divided.
One way to achieve that: make their moves against external state actors less likely to be successful.
Another: always pit France and Germany against each other.
The latter should not be that hard. Given Macron’s assertiveness as of late - and evident German annoyance at that.