Midweekly Overview - The US must leverage the incipient EU/China confrontation
Belarusian plane hijacking is truly unprecedented - swift response is in order
There are many western ‘‘pundits’’ claiming that Belarusian dictator’s acts of grounding a commercial flight to arrest his political opponent wan’t in fact unprecedented.
These (unwitting) soldiers of Chinese whataboutism narrative, use the 2013 Snowden incident to assert that the US was in fact the first country to establish this exceptionally dangerous precedent.
This is completely wrong - whatever side of the Snowden issue you take, it is imperative to remember that the US was advancing a formal extradition demand based on Snowden’s violation of specific national security laws.
American government didn’t scramble fighter jets to threaten a third country commercial airline to arrest a political (and innocent) dissident who’s only crime was to exercise political speech critical of the Belarusian dictatorship.
Furthermore, the US most certainly didn’t lie about a bomb threat on a commercial plane in order to secure an arrest.
What Belarusian dictator Lukashenko did, crosses all lines of international law (as well as civil aviation treaties).
As if hijacking a plane wasn’t enough, Lukashenko’s government proceeded to brazenly and incredulously assert that the bomb threat was from Hamas.
(Side note: Lukashenko was (rather pathetically) hoping that the global Israeli lobby would jump at this opportunity to attack Hamas, and that maybe this could temporarily change the global narrative. This was however a spectacular miscalculation. This lie was simply too ridiculous to believe in. Why would Hamas do this? What would be the motivation of Hamas in targeting European citizens? Their whole strategy is to make Israel look like the aggressor in the eyes of the European and global audience. Why on earth would they create a new enemy in Europe? When all that the EU is doing these days is bashing Israel for their disproportionate response in Gaza…)
The EU/US response has to be swift and aggressive - to prevent the normalization of this behavior.
This specific act must create so much cost to the Belarusian regime, that richer more powerful authoritarian regimes (like Iran/Russia/China) wouldn’t think twice about engaging in similar tactics.
The EU must coordinate with the US to achieve a larger shutdown of the Belarusian airspace - beyond simply banning their national carrier (and cancelling EU flights to and from Belarus).
Their whole airspace must turn into a no-go zone - they need to feel the financial pain of this ridiculous act.
But even that’s not enough - the most productive and valuable industries in Belarus must also be targeted with sanctions.
Putin’s enemy/Russian oligarch Khodorkovsky’s calls for sanctioning Belarusian oil and potash industries are solid.
Some analysts warn of a tough response, arguing that this would push Belarus closer to Russia.
This is an erroneous thinking based on two false premises:
1. An assumption that there was still a point of return for a Belarusian leader
The opportunity for a de-escalation and a gradual transfer of political power, was before the state sponsored torture, mass incarcerations, and outlandish claims of CIA overthrow plans.
Actions that all pushed Lukashenko into the arms of Putin - irrevocably too.
Lukashenko knows that he cannot u-turn anymore.
He is in fact Bashar Assad light.
Lukashenko knows that the relationship with the West has been damaged beyond repair - he consequently has zero incentives for a genuine political de-escalation.
2. An assumption that Russia would want Belarus closer in its orbit at any financial cost.
As outlined in the first point above, the strings of Lukashenko are already in Putin’s hands.
What does Putin gain if Lukashenko is even more dependent on him?
Sure, Putin loves control of Belarus, but not at any financial cost.
Beyond a certain point, the level of repression/theatrics from Lukashenko , lead to exceptionally high financial costs of propping up his regime.
In other words - the point of diminishing return kicks in.
It is therefore unsurprising that the Kremlin immediately distanced itself from the hijacking fiasco.
The speed with which the Kremlin denied its complicity is quite important.
This wasn’t only messaging intended towards the West (hoping to avoid more sanctions) but also a tacit warning to Lukashenko to hold his horses and scale back.
Consequently, the Western reaction must be overwhelming and swift - imposing very high financial costs, and not worrying about the erroneous (even if well-meaning) concerns of pushing Belarus closer to Russia.
The US must leverage the incipient EU/China confrontation
The EU finally engaged in some proper response against China’s counter-sanctions (the initial EU sanctions were imposed due to the Xinjiang/Uyghur issues).
The EU parliament has suspended the ratification of the EU/China investment deal (commonly known as CAI/ Comprehensive Agreement on Investment).
In my previous cables, I discussed how CAI was essentially a stab in the back of the Biden admin - the EU then refused to wait for the new incoming administration to consult the details of the agreement (which was actually against the EU’s own interests - they could have used America’s leverage to push for a better deal).
By asserting a total autonomy on such an important agreement, the EU damaged the west’s unity and combined leverage vis-à-vis China.
But that happened in the past - we cannot change that.
What we can capitalize on however, is this new developing rift.
There was an overwhelming support in the European Parliament to freeze the deal - with 599 votes in favor, against only 30 opposing.
This puts China into a bit of a pickle: if they backtrack and roll back sanctions, they lose the credibility of all of their future sanctions and threats.
If they hold their current line however, the US gains an opening to deepen the EU/China rift.
This then deals a huge blow to China’s favorite divide & conquer strategy against the West.
In the meantime, the US must not leave anything to chance.
Extra effort must be put into ensuring that the rift does in fact deepen - so much so that the rollback of Chinese sanctions becomes impossible without CCP losing too much face.
In the current context/short-term, the US can double down and deepen this rift in three major ways:
1) Encourage other countries to follow Lithuania’s suit and recognize Uyghur genocide
Lithuania’s parliament not only declared that China’s treatment of Uyghurs was genocidal in nature, but also called for a UN investigation.
American diplomats must work with other EU countries to build a wider consensus and create a domino effect throughout the EU.
Other Baltic states (that are least dependent on China trade) are prime targets for such diplomatic overtures.
(side note: this one shouldn’t be too hard to carry out. )
Additionally, Balkan (EU) member states must also be targeted.
China is already interested in the Balkan region - as evidenced with its manipulations in Serbia (under the cover of an infrastructure project investment/cooperation).
The US must aim to secure more Balkan states making similar declarations - pitting them against China, and inoculating them against/preventing future ‘‘infrastructure partnerships’’ that create dependence on China.
(side note: although China’s investment / trade deal would be with the EU as a whole, there is nothing to preclude a small-scale infrastructure project deal in a member state. Croatia may for example be a target. This allows China to create multiple extra layers of relationships within the EU - part of the ‘‘divide and conquer’’ strategy)
In other words, there are realpolitik opportunities here - in addition to pure idealism.
2) Push for joint investigations into China’s role in Myanmar
The fact that China is selling jet fuel to the bloody military Junta of Myanmar, must turn into a big scandal.
Yet it somehow isn’t a narrative advanced by the Western diplomatic establishment.
The idea that China’s interests align with those of the US/EU is foolish - China benefits from Chaos on the global chessboard.
If a bloody regime can get away with ruthlessly taking over power and killing innocent civilians en masse, then that’s a dent to the rule-based global order championed by the US.
It is in China’s interests to constantly provide evidence of the Western impotence in maintaining its own promoted global world order.
It must be the US/EU’s priority then to demonstrate China’s nefarious role in propping up the pariah Myanmar regime.
Joint press-conferences and summits must be dedicated solely to this issue.
Task-forces must work on this and maintain the media narrative - painting China as the champion of chaos that it is.
3) Push for a joint investigation into the lab leak hypothesis investigation.
There are currently no active international/multilateral investigations going on into the origins of COVID-19.
I previously dedicated a cable specifically on this issue - how the US was dropping the ball here.
With the new bombshell Wall Street Journal report about Wuhan lab researchers falling sick way back in November 2019, (and how China never revealed that) there is now a renewed fresh context to push for an international investigation into the COVID-19 origins.
(Side note: China’s culpability in hiding the first discovery of the virus is enormous - if the global scientific community was made aware of the virus even a few weeks before it was finally informed, the mRNA vaccine could have been developed much faster - potentially saving hundreds of thousands of lives).
There are some encouraging signs that the US policymakers are finally stepping up their game here:
1) Biden is instructing US intel agencies to investigate the COVID-19 origins
2) HHS Secretary Xavier Becerra calls for a round 2 investigation.
3) Even Fauci finally accepted the possibility that the Wuhan lab leak hypothesis may have some footing after all.
Fauci’s statement however was rather weak, and he equivocated massively saying: “Many of us feel that it is more likely that this is a natural occurrence, as has happened with Sars-Cov-1, where it goes from an animal reservoir to a human..But, we don’t know 100 per cent the answer to that . . . [and] it’s imperative that we look and we do an investigation’’
Yet even this was enough for an aggressive backlash from the Chinese state media that accused Fauci of ‘‘fanning a huge lie against China’’.
(side note: China’s inadequate response against Fauci is good news. Their most senior policymakers are devoid of big picture strategic thought and nuance. Why would you attack Fauci? He is your biggest (albeit unwitting) asset in dismissing the Wuhan lab leak theory.)
Having said all that, it is however worrying that the White House still maintains that the WHO (a puppet of CCP at this point/on this issue) would be a legitimate authority for such an investigation to take place.
No. The US must use this opportunity to form a joint commission with the EU, and vigorously demand that China allows a proper multilateral investigation into the causes of COVID-19.
The precise mechanism and make-up of the investigative commission (as well as the parameters of research) can all be negotiated.
The US must push for it and press China to react.
They will resist and deflect and whine - all good for the West.
Narrative control will squarely be in our hands.
In the meantime, the global public opinion will gradually crystallize around two facts: 1) That it is quite likely that COVID-19 did in fact originate at the Wuhan lab, and 2) That CCP is actively covering up its gross negligence (at the minimum).
In short, the US can and must make use of these three tactical moves to isolate and degrade China’s authoritarian communist regime.