Midweekly Overview
Estimated Reading Time: 4 mins, 46 sec.
Russia’s devious imperial plans for Belarus
Apparently, leaked official documents suggest that Russian SVR (foreign intelligence service) General Vladimir Chernov has some interesting takeover plans for Belarus.
It is not clear how these documents got leaked into the hands of independent media outlets in Russia.
It is also not clear if the documents are a reliable piece of evidence - whether or not there is a risk of fabrication.
But before we analyze that, let’s look at what the documents actually say.
Many details.. but, I will focus on these primary objectives [allegedly proposed by the aforementioned general];
1) creation of a pro-Kremlin, pro-Russia integration, new political party called ‘‘Right of the people’’ [or right of the nation - depending on how exactly you translate. I trust you get the gist].
2) that would thereafter push for constitutional amendments, ultimately creating a parliamentary-presidential republic.
3) Infiltration of all major opposition party leaderships.
4) Kremlin’s ‘‘assets’’ that would be entrusted with transitional government, once Lukashenko is pushed out. Initially, power will be held by the parliament.
5) Development of informational and community organizing/grassroots resources, including pro-Kremlin media ownerships, and also new-age social media resources like youtube and telegram channels.
Now assuming the documents are reliable sources and proofs of actual intent
Several things to note:
1) Kremlin is becoming more agile in detecting and pre-empting the total collapse of shaky authoritarian regimes.
In the past 7 years, they lost both Ukraine and Armenia to color revolutions [these most recent revolutions did not strictly speaking belong to the color revolutions of Georgia/Ukraine in early 2000s, but these were broadly similar style non-violent movements]
In both cases, Kremlin was a) caught off guard b) failed to prevent the collapse of a pro-Kremlin regional authoritarian leader and c) subsequently developed bad relationship with the new governments.
In case of Ukraine/Maidan 2014, Kremlin insisted on backing Yanukovich to the bitter end.
Sending Vladislav Surkov and FSB snipers [responsible for majority of killings] did not alter the course of events
In 2018, Armenia’s authoritarian government collapsed even before Russia could effectively intervene/prevent this eventuality.
So now, Kremlin finally realizes that propping up rotten dictators does not work. Sooner or later they have to go.
Instead, it looks like they want to tightly orchestrate the exact sequence and course of events.
2)They are also taking a very wide multi-tiered approach:
Establishing puppet political parties, media institutions.
This is a potemkin village 2.0. Talk about a real life theatre!
If cyber attacks, disinformation/fake news/RT propaganda/ little green men special ops are Russian hybrid warfare tactics, then these are hybrid nation control tactics.
Just think about this. Russia aims to trick a whole country into thinking that they have removed a dictator and that they have new democratic institutions! Right of the people! [of Kremlin]
3) The ultimate aim is to integrate Belarus into Russia.
Literally. Formally. Annex and absolve.
This is not hard to imagine.
Unlike Ukraine, Belarus is much more pro-Russian.
Culturally and ethnically they are virtually the same.
Having said this, just because it is plausible, does not mean that majority of the population would actively want this integration.
Belarus has a vibrant tech-sector, professional middle and upper-middle class, lots of young people [better demographics than Russia] that want closer ties with the E.U. and the west in general.
Hundreds of thousands of Belarussians protesting Lukashenko are unlikely to be happy with Putin as their new president.
U.S. needs to pre-empt any potential Kremlin plans.
Firstly, by exposing these alleged plans as extremely likely.
Even if the whole ‘‘plan’’ is fake, it is good to pre-empt any potential similar desires by alerting to such possibilities.
Secondly, by offering something better than Russia - prosperity and democracy.
Belarussian youth should be offered State Dept backed internships/educational exchange programs.
Tech market of Minsk should be better integrated with silicon valley scene.
Thirdly, by educating Belarussians of the fact that they too would end up facing EU and U.S. sanctions directed at Russia - if they end up fully annexed.
America = prosperity, political liberties, functional gov institutions.
Russia = poverty and misery of sanctions.
Now assuming full confidence in provenance of these documents, who would leak them?
Someone high-up in Kremlin who would not want Putin experiencing another popularity bump [if the plan was to be fully and successfully executed].
Putin’s popularity at the time of Crimean invasion peaked at 91% approval rating.
It stayed there for some time, before slowly eroding under the weight of economic and social problems [due to western sanctions and low oil prices].
Now, if Putin really intends to remain in power until 2036, he would need fresh victories bolstering the narrative of a great patriarch/leader of all orthodox Russians.
Successfully annexing Belarus would provide a significant bump for at least several years.
Coincidentally, these would be the most turbulent years too - as Navalny is getting ever more powerful and popular, economy is struggling and not all siloviki wing members of Kremlin are convinced with Putin’s claim at lifelong presidency.
So, someone powerful and ambitious in Kremlin would want to prevent this plan from materializing, and thus solidifying Putin’s grip on power.
What if the documents are totally fake? who would ‘‘leak’’ them then?
Same person/group - preventing any such appetites from arising in the first place.
Of course it is also possible that this was the doing of a western intelligence service.
Unlikely, but if that is the case then BRAVO! what an amazingly low-investment/high impact campaign would that be!
To cause bad blood between Putin and Lukashenko and prevent any similar plans from being executed successfully.
Chinese [dismissal of] diplomacy in the upcoming decade
Germany’s two-year term at the 15 member UN security council finishes this month.
Its envoy, Ambassador Christoph Heusgen [who is also retiring as a diplomat after 40 years] used his final days productively, asking for Christmas amnesty for two Canadian detainees in China: Michael Kovrig and Michael Spavor.
This was the Chinese response:
“I wish to say something out of the bottom of my heart: Good riddance, Ambassador Heusgen’’
‘‘Good riddance’’
This was the language used by China’s deputy U.N. ambassador, Geng Shuang.
Let’s ignore for a moment, the crass and distasteful nature of this response.
Let’s be all realpolitik for a second. The country on the receiving end was not some third world African country. It was Germany.
Most powerful EU member state.
China is no longer intimidated by a leading EU country. By the EU itself.
China allows itself to communicate so disrespectfully, even when the matter at hand is not very important.
Chinese deputy ambassador could have simply ignored the statement.
This is a good indication of what is about to come in this decade.
China will grow ever more restless and callous - giving up diplomatic protocol over smallest of things.
U.S. and the EU must realize that language of clear incentives and sanctions will be needed in the nearest future.
Subtle diplomacy, polite appeals, niceties. All of these are likely useless going forward.
Avenging Daniel Pearl’s murder
Some good news on realpolitik front.
Acting AG Jeffrey Rosen says that Justice Dept may seek to try in a U.S. court, a man accused of killing an American [Wall Street Journal] journalist Daniel Pearl.
This is after Pakistani court ordered the release of the main suspect, Ahmed Omar Saeed Sheikh.
This [if followed through] is great news.
No one should get away with murdering an American citizen abroad.
America first and foremost protects its national honor/prestige and prowess when avenging the murder of its citizens.
It also deters future crimes, saving lives of other Americans.
With so many powerful adversaries getting more aggressive with every day, it is imperative that would be perpetrators be thoroughly deterred and discouraged from even thinking of hurting an American citizen.