Midweekly Overview
Estimated Reading Time: 4 mins, 11 sec.
China lashes out : America backs down
China reacted predictably to Pompeo’s final strike on Taiwan [as outlined in the previous cable].
Chinese state resources acted in concert, and with admirable coordination - one area where a western lib democracy will always [and naturally] be lacking.
Chinese state mouthpiece [and a publication of a notable reach], Global Times warned the U.S. in no unclear terms.
Urging China to send a ‘‘stern warning’’ to Taiwan, it warned that:
“Those on the island of Taiwan must not take for granted that they can seek secession with the help of the last-ditch madness of an administration abandoned by the Americans…On the contrary, such madness is very likely to bring them annihilation,”
In advancing this line of attack, Global Times deliberately chose to voice concerns raised by the Taiwanese political opposition - who worry that the outgoing administration is not credible, and that its stance does not guarantee backing by the new Biden admin.
Subsequently, China’s Foreign Ministry engaged in its own threatening tone, warning the U.S. to "refrain from going further down the wrong and dangerous path."
further? Dangerous path?
So America is already on that path? What makes it dangerous? Dangerous how? Towards what party exactly? To America? Or to Taiwan?
Vague nature of the threat is of course by design.
There isn’t a clear retaliatory action that China is ready to engage in.
Furthermore, now is precisely the best time to engage in cheap threatening rhetoric followed by exactly zero actions..
Risk/reward ratio on belligerent rhetoric is simply too good to pass on.
Trump admin is leaving.
Escalation with the current administration will mean little after January 20.
Given this context, and given the uncertainty in Taiwan [that U.S. would follow through], it was disheartening to see that the State Department backed down, and cancelled America’s UN Ambassador Kelly Craft’s trip to Taiwan - that was supposed to take place today.
At least some effort was made to cloak the retreat as a department wide [administratively necessary] step.
This is how the DoS spokesperson Morgan Ortagus justified the retreat:
‘‘We are fully committed to the completion of a smooth and orderly transition process to be finalized over the next eight days..We are cancelling all planned travel this week, including the Secretary’s trip to Europe.”
Right. No one [especially China] buys this for a second.
That Pompeo suddenly cared 100x more about a smooth transition [after his enormous last minute hike in activity] is … extremely unlikely.
Nevertheless, it is still better to have a minimally plausible excuse for a retreat.
Curious spike in North Korean belligerence
North Korean ‘‘leader’’, Kim Jong Un called for advanced nuclear weapons.
The Rocketman wants more hypersonic weapons, solid-fuel intercontinental ballistic missiles (ICBMs), spy satellites, and drones.
He also declared U.S. as North Korea’s ‘‘biggest enemy’’.
Now, why would he do that? Why now?
Well, as you may have heard already, Kim admitted that the most recent 5 year economic plan amounted to a little more than an abject failure.
It is a common path for a politician [especially that of an authoritarian state] to focus on external enemies to garner the rally round the flag effect.
But the rocketman is not a leader of just an authoritarian state.
In fact, unlike many autocrats [like Putin/Crimea invasion] he has no need for engagement in such tactics.
Rocketman is leading the most totalitarian state on the planet.
There is no other country where a political leader has less resistance, less competition [even a subtle type from the inner circle - like in China/Russia], less nuisance to his absolute power and impact.
He also clearly does not actually want a real escalation.
Contrary to what many may think - he most definitely does not have a death wish.
He likes the company of fine ladies and glitzy palaces far too much to have the zeal of a self-destructive ISIS terrorist.
So why do this?
Most likely as a pitch to China - hoping for financial aid in return.
This is essentially the pitch: hey I know things are tough with America. Taiwan, Hong Kong etc. I am aware. I am here to be of active help - my belligerence and threats will add to their distraction and division of resources in the Pacific theatre. But remember what I said about my failed 5 year plan? sooo please sire.. may I have some more?
Why now?
Well as I mentioned in relation to China, the cost of escalation has never been lower.
American foreign policy is effectively on hold for the next week [at least].
There is also active copying of Iranian hardball tactics.
Similar to Iran, NK wants to set a very high starting point for negotiations early on - an anchor - whereby any medium level deviation from that anchor will still result in an approximately favorable result.
This is the idea: either we will de-escalate in return for a good deal, or we will de-escalate slowly from this very high starting point - and through extra delay, gain more time for ballistic missile development and perfection [their primary goal].
A shift in the foreign policy ‘‘overton window’’ may happen when so many adversaries are suddenly way more belligerent and reckless with their rhetoric - it will become more common [and expected/acceptable] that countries disrespect America’s power with impunity.
U.S. should do the very opposite in regards to both Iran and NK.
Demand even more than was expected of them.
Push back hard.
This will be tougher in relation to Iran..
Iran reveals an underground missile base
Well, revelation is a strong word.
Reveal to whom exactly? How likely is it that U.S. and Israel were unaware?
Any country that is actively tracking nuclear facilities in Iran [and everything that goes around them] is unlikely to miss a significant underground structure - especially when this is located in a very strategic location in the Persian gulf.
Just look at the pictures of the facility.
The amount of construction work that was needed for this…
Is it really plausible that a country that successfully tracks and assassinates one of Iran’s most important assets - a leading nuclear scientist - was going to miss this massive underground construction project?
not very..
So who was the intended audience of this revelation?
Iranian public - especially the conservative/hardliner demographic that will play the key role in the June elections.
All appearances of Iranian aggression in the upcoming months, must be filtered through this lens - whilst being careful not to dismiss the most egregious transgressions prematurely.
Biden must enter the negotiation boldly and demand more than just adherence to the original JCPOA terms.
There must be extra demands in regards to ballistic programs and Iranian proxies.
Biden must also be willing to walk away from JCPOA - this is absolutely necessary. This tone must be established early on.
Especially when Iran knows that Biden’s National Security adviser, Jake Sullivan wants this deal to happen real bad.