On Legitimate Strategic Value Of Greenland

• President-elect Donald Trump has revived his interest in Greenland, suggesting military force could be an option to secure control of the Arctic island.

• We have previously discussed how his refusal to rule out the use of military force against a NATO ally Denmark would cause significant harm to U.S. standing and global prestige.

• (side note: Denmark - is the sovereign state of Greenland, meaning Greenland is an autonomous territory within the Kingdom of Denmark.)

• But leaving aside the damage of his comments, they do in fact underscore Greenland’s growing geostrategic importance.

• And as climate change reshapes the Arctic, opening critical shipping routes, the competition among the U.S., China, and Russia will be heightened - and Greenland will play a significant role in this new reality.

• Now, as of today, and even though Denmark is the sovereign state of Greenland, it maintains a limited security presence on the island.

• With only 75 personnel in its Arctic Command - in contrast to the U.S. military presence includes 200 personnel and 450 contractors and allies at Pituffik.

• Denmark has tried to bolster its credibility, unveiling a $250 million surveillance upgrade for Greenland and the Faroe Islands in 2021.

• Following Trump’s renewed interest, Denmark announced up to $2 billion in investments for new ships, drones, dog sled teams, and infrastructure upgrades, including an extended runway for F-35 aircraft.

• Despite these efforts, Denmark’s capacity to defend the vast island remains limited, highlighted by its slow response to a grounded cruise ship in 2023, which took four days for a rescue vessel to arrive.

• And Trump’s framing of Greenland as a "national security necessity" marks a shift from his 2019 portrayal (when he tried to purchase the island from Denmark) of it as a "real estate deal."

• His rhetoric reflects concerns about keeping Chinese and Russian influence out of the Arctic.

• Indeed the U.S. increasingly views the Arctic as a region of geopolitical competition, particularly as Beijing and Moscow assert their interests.

• Greenland’s location near vital submarine routes and its role in Arctic shipping make it critical for maintaining control over the region (more on that later below).

• Context matters a lot: Greenland is pushing for independence—a key issue in upcoming elections.

• As such, there is a possibility that a NATO ally Denmark will no longer remain a sovereign power over this island.

• This is an often overlooked detail in most analyses: given Greenland’s strategic role and positioning, the possibility of independence and potential alignment/close cooperation with China and/or Russia is alarming for the U.S.

• As such, it is clearly in U.S. interests to preclude such a possibility as soon as possible.

• Before delving into details of Greeenland’s geostrategic value for the U.S. we shall quickly explore the history of U.S. - Greenland relations: Washington has wanted this territory for a long time and President Truman even tried to purchase it during his term.

History of America’s involvement in Greenland.

• The United States established a military presence in Greenland during World War II, driven by strategic imperatives and evolving geopolitical dynamics.

• In 1941, with Denmark under German occupation, the U.S. sought to prevent Nazi influence in Greenland.

• Through an agreement with the Danish envoy in Washington, the U.S. established bases to defend the Western Hemisphere.

• This led to the construction of airfields and weather stations, crucial for transatlantic flights and meteorological data.

• It is also important to highlight that the U.S. refused to let Britain play a military/defensive role in Greenland at the outbreak of WWII.

• This is in contrast to Iceland - there, the U.S. had no objections, but Greenland was treated as part of the North American landmass and was therefore considered to fall under the Monroe Doctrine - where the U.S. would not let any European power play a strategic/military role in its backyard.

• And after the end of WWII, In 1946, the United States, under President Truman, proposed purchasing Greenland from Denmark for $100 million in gold.

• This initiative was driven by strategic considerations during the early stages of the Cold War, as Greenland's geographic position was deemed crucial for Arctic defense against the Soviet Union.

• The U.S. perceived control over Greenland as a "military necessity," aiming to establish a stronger foothold in the Arctic region.

• However, Denmark declined the offer, choosing to maintain sovereignty over the island.

• Despite the rejection, the United States secured defense agreements with Denmark, allowing the construction of military installations, notably the Thule Air Base in 1953.

• This base became a vital hub during the Cold War, hosting thousands of American personnel and serving as a key asset for Arctic defense.

• Thule Air Base (now Pituffik Space Base), thereafter became a pivotal site for early warning radar systems and Arctic operations.

Legitimate geostrategic value of Greenland.