Rubio’s Ultimatum and Russia’s Maximalism: How Not to Do Strategy.

• Speaking in Paris on Friday after meeting European and Ukrainian leaders, U.S. Secretary of State Marco Rubio publicly warned that Washington might “move on” from current peace talks if there wasn’t soon “progress.”

• (side note: and Trump later on affirmed this view by saying ‘‘Marco is right’’)

• Rubio’s comment-equal parts bluff and bravado-may play well in certain domestic quarters, but it reflects a shallow and unserious grasp of strategic leverage.

• Rubio’s ultimatum is not only ill-timed-it’s detached from battlefield reality and divorced from actual pressure mechanics.

• There has been zero meaningful escalation of U.S. pressure on Russia since the talks began.

• Moscow, recognizing this vacuum, has responded not with concessions but with renewed demands, armored offensives, and threats against Europe.

• This is not a diplomatic negotiation - it’s a test of strength.

• And so far, the U.S. position is defined more by rhetorical noise than coercive power.

“Negotiations Are Difficult” – Because Russia Has No Reason to Compromise.

• The Kremlin has made clear its position: Ukraine must cede not just currently occupied territory, but entire regions where Russian control is partial or even non-existent.

• On April 17, Kremlin spokesman Dmitry Peskov reiterated that Russia’s recognition of these oblasts-Donetsk, Luhansk, Zaporizhia, and Kherson-as “integral” parts of Russia is non-negotiable.

“It is impossible to pose the question this way,” Peskov stated when asked whether territorial recognition was mandatory to end the war.

• Translation: Russia will not budge.

• Russian officials now claim the talks are progressing “quite difficultly”-and conveniently blame Ukraine and Europe for the lack of movement, while suggesting the U.S. remains their preferred channel.

• This is standard application reflexive control-a Russian war and coercive diplomacy strategy designed to shape adversary perceptions, impose unfavorable assumptions, and draw them into asymmetric compromises.

• Rubio’s suggestion that the U.S. might walk away-without adding any new costs to Russia-simply reinforces Russian confidence.

• It’s a child’s bluff at an adult poker table.

Russia’s Conduct Tells the Real Story: No Moratorium, No Moderation

• Putin’s 30-day moratorium on strikes against Ukrainian energy infrastructure-announced on March 18 after a call with President Trump-expired with a whisper, not a breakthrough.

• (side note: not that it was ever fully/seriously imposed. And attacks on civilian populations have continued throughout this period. With the latest war crime perpetrated against citizens of Sumy: more than 30 civilians killed in a ballistic missile strike in the downtown area.)

• And while the diplomatic track has stalled, the military track is intensifying.

▪ April 16, Zaporizhia Front:

• Russian forces launched a battalion-sized mechanized assault across a 40-kilometer front between Pyatykhatky and Mala Tokmachka.

• The attacking force included:

  • ~320 soldiers

  • 40 armored vehicles

  • 3 tanks

  • 10 light buggies

• Ukrainian forces destroyed 29 armored vehicles and all 3 tanks, and killed or wounded ~140 Russian troops, repelling the attack with no observed Russian gains.

▪ April 13–17, Pokrovsk Direction:

• Another major assault by a reinforced Russian company was met with devastating losses:

  • Ukrainian forces destroyed:

    • 21 armored fighting vehicles

    • 96 motorcycles

    • 2 other vehicles

  • Ukrainian President Zelensky reported that over 115 pieces of equipment were neutralized in total, with 200 Russian soldiers killed and 30 wounded.

• These are not symbolic skirmishes - they are sustained efforts backed by months of Russian force preparation, aimed at probing weaknesses in Ukrainian lines and exploiting seasonal hardening of terrain post-rasputitsa (mud season).

• They are also a signal: Russia is preparing for more war, not less.

Russia’s Rhetoric to Europe: Fire and Fury

• As the battlefield tempo increases, Russia is again turning to nuclear-adjacent and escalation rhetoric aimed at Europe:

• Maria Zakharova, Russian MFA Spokesperson, threatened that Germany would be a direct participant in the war if it sent Taurus missiles to Ukraine.

• She also echoed SVR head Sergey Naryshkin’s warning that Poland and the Baltic states would be the “first to suffer” in any NATO-Russia clash.

• These threats are not new-but they are part of a coordinated campaign to suppress European resolve.

• The Kremlin seeks to prevent Europe from stepping up aid to Ukraine, particularly long-range missile systems that could hold Russian logistics and command nodes at risk.

• Rubio’s empty posturing only helps Russia’s cause.

• By implying the U.S. might abandon the process, he signals to both Moscow and Europe that Washington isn’t serious.

A Hollow Ultimatum: Where Is the Pressure?

• Since the return of Trump in January, the U.S. and its allies have not imposed any new substantial economic, military, or diplomatic costs on Russia.

• Nothing major since the negotiations began.

• In fact:

• No new secondary sanctions have been introduced to enforce compliance.

• No air defense or long-range strike packages (beyond prior commitments) have been fast-tracked for Ukraine.

• No escalation of strategic messaging-military deployments, maritime posturing, or NATO readiness levels-has been pursued.

• On the other hand; Ukraine’s President has been humiliated in DC, aid and intel-sharing to Ukraine has been frozen (even if temporarily), Trump has repeatedly blamed Zelensky for the start of this war, and Trump’s Special Envoy Steve Witkoff has demonstrated exceptional naïveté - taking Putin’s story that he ‘‘prayed’’ for his ‘‘friend’’ Trump (after the July 2024 assassination attempt) at a face value.

• How would any of this lead to Russia to tone it down and give up its insistence on delusional maximalist demands?

• In short: Russia is being asked to make concessions without facing any new incentives to do so.

• It is hard to overstate how unserious this approach is.

• If peace talks are not backed by leverage, they are not negotiations - they are cheap theater.

Peace Is Not a Favor, It’s An Outcome Of Strategic Calculation

• Secretary Rubio’s bluff - “make progress or we’ll walk away”- might impress a cable news audience, but it fails as statecraft.

• Russia does not respond to speeches.

• Moscow only responds to shifts in the balance of power.

• And right now, the balance is holding steady-or even tipping slightly in Moscow’s favor.

• If the United States wants progress at the table, it must create it on the battlefield and in the financial system.

• Until then, “moving on” would be less a strategy and more a capitulation in disguise.