Russia Is On The Brink Of A Spectacular Return to Syria: A Strategic Reversal Enabled by Trump Admin's Ineptitude.

Washington Giving Away Enormous Strategic Gains In Syria.

• Monumental changes are unfolding worldwide under the new administration.

• While global attention remains fixated on Ukraine, the situation in Syria—previously analyzed in depth—is now escalating.

• The ineptitude of the current U.S. administration is on the verge of reversing what was once considered a major strategic victory for Washington: Russia’s forced withdrawal from Syria.

• What seemed like a humiliating defeat for Moscow just a few months ago is now on the verge of turning into a triumphant return, a direct consequence of U.S. passivity and mismanagement.

• From Defeat to Revival: Russia’s Strategic Comeback in Syria

• In December, the collapse of Bashar al-Assad’s regime forced Russia to retreat, leaving its military bases exposed and its strategic assets vulnerable.

• Moscow, which had been bombing rebel forces in late November to prevent their advance towards Damascus, suddenly found itself in retreat.

• The rebels it had previously labeled as terrorists were now in control.

• This was a moment of global significance—Russia’s position in Syria was crumbling, and there were serious concerns that Moscow could lose its access to Mediterranean ports.

• This was particularly critical for Russia’s long-term power projection, given that its naval base in Tartus provides strategic leverage not only across the Middle East but also over key Mediterranean states, Africa, and even NATO’s southern flank.

• Furthermore, in the long term, once the war in Ukraine concludes, this base would serve as a vital link to the Black Sea Fleet.

• (side note: currently, Turkey - a NATO ally, is enforcing Montreux convention and preventing entry of Russian warships into the Black Sea basin. In times of war, Turkey has the right to deny passage to warships belonging to any nation engaged in conflict. However, warships already stationed in the Black Sea at the outbreak of war can return to their home bases. This provision allows Turkey to close the straits to Russian warships coming from outside the Black Sea, preventing reinforcements from the Russian navy's Mediterranean-based forces from entering. Following Russia’s full-scale invasion of Ukraine on February 24, 2022, Turkey invoked Article 19 on February 28, 2022, declaring the war an “armed conflict”. As a result, Turkey closed the straits to Russian (and other foreign) warships, preventing Moscow from reinforcing its Black Sea Fleet from the Mediterranean and other regions. Notably, Russian warships already in the Black Sea before the war were still allowed to operate, but no new reinforcements from Russia’s Northern or Pacific Fleets could legally enter. Obviously, this was a major strategic victory for Ukraine. After destroying enough ships in the Black Sea, they were able to end the Russian blockade - safe in the knowledge that Turkey was going to block additional Russian ships from re-entry.)

• Yet, in the space of mere months, the landscape has shifted dramatically.

• The U.S. is now retreating from its leadership role, forcing other nations to adopt a more pragmatic approach.

• As a result, Russia—despite facing significant setbacks—is now negotiating with the newly formed HTS-led central government in Syria for a return.

• According to exclusive reports from The Wall Street Journal, Moscow is discussing retaining its military base, signing multi-billion-dollar contracts for the construction of new ports in Tartus, and gaining involvement in offshore gas projects, phosphate mines in Palmyra, and a fertilizer plant in Homs.

• If followed through, this would be nothing short of a spectacular turnaround.

• Just months ago, Russia’s expulsion was a point of celebration in Washington, with President Donald Trump openly gloating over Putin’s failures in Syria.

• And yet, his own administration is now enabling Moscow’s return through passive and incompetent policymaking.

Factors Enabling Russia’s Return.