Russia's Deliberately Impossible Demands and Trump Admin Continues Policy Of Unconditional Flattery And Concessions For Putin.
Putin’s Counteroffer: I Want An Option To Attack Whenever I Want But Ukraine Must Be Forced Into A Position Where It Cannot Defend Itself.
It has been a few days since Ukraine agreed to a 30-day ceasefire proposal without conditions, while U.S. envoy Steve Witkoff traveled to Moscow to discuss a similar arrangement with Russian officials.
And what has been Putin’s response to date?
Well, for the first time since the invasion began, Russian President Vladimir Putin was seen wearing military fatigues in the Kursk region.
During this appearance, he made an alarming declaration that captured Ukrainian soldiers would be treated as terrorists—a direct violation of the Geneva Conventions.
(side note: this statement is not only a blatant breach of international law but also further proof that Putin is no longer attempting to hide his war crimes; rather, he is making his violations explicit and public.)
Later on, and in a joint press conference with Belarusian President Alexander Lukashenko, Putin introduced several conditions to “nuances” to Ukraine’s unconditional ceasefire agreement.
This was a predictable move—one anticipated by Kyiv last week.
Ukraine’s strategy was to put the burden of rejecting peace onto Putin, making it clear to the world that Russia—not Ukraine—is blocking the path to peace.
And in this, Kyiv has been successful.
And what are these nuances and conditions?
Well, although some of Russia’s conditions can be spinned (by the pro-Kremlin supplicants) as reasonable procedural concerns, (such as the verification of ceasefire enforcement), a significant portion consisted of highly asymmetric and unrealistic demands, such as: 1) A ban on Ukrainian mobilization and rearmament during the 30-day ceasefire, and yet 2) No mention of similar restrictions on Russia’s forces, allowing Moscow to continue resupplying and reinforcing its military positions.
In essence, Putin’s position amounts to the following: “Russia will rearm, regroup, and resupply its forces, while Ukraine must halt all activities that could help it defend itself when we resume the war.”
Trump’s Weak Response and Spread of Russian Disinformation.
Despite Trump’s earlier threats to impose significant sanctions on Russia’s banking sector, he has taken no action to follow through.
Instead, he has amplified Russian disinformation and propaganda.
Now, Trump has a well-documented tendency to absorb and repeat Russian misinformation.
For example: Prior to Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky’s visit to the White House, Trump falsely claimed that Zelensky was a dictator with a 4% approval rating (a fabrication spread by Russian bots and intelligence agencies), and that Ukraine’s lack of elections during wartime made Zelensky illegitimate—despite the fact that Russia, where elections are blatant shams and opposition figures are assassinated, is the real dictatorship.
(side note: The Economist recently conducted a poll, revealing that nearly 80% of Ukrainians support Zelensky and that a majority opposes territorial concessions to Russia. This directly contradicts Russia’s narrative (eagerly spread by Tucker Carlson & co) that Ukrainians do not want to fight for their motherland and are being coerced by corrupt leaders.)
And now, the most recent falsehood promoted by Trump is the claim that Ukrainian forces in Kursk were encircled and on the verge of being slaughtered, only to be saved by Trump’s intervention.
Reality Check: There was no encirclement of Ukrainian forces in Kursk.
Instead, Ukrainian forces conducted a professional, orderly retreat to minimize casualties—a stark contrast to Russia’s “meat grinder” tactics.
Trump’s claims indicate that he is not reading U.S. intelligence briefings and is instead relying on Russian propaganda.
(side note: are we still going to pretend that Zelensky was wrong when he said that Trump operates in a Russia-manufactured “misinformation space”?)
Further Unreciprocated And Unilateral Concessions From Washington.
The most alarming development is that Trump’s National Security Advisor, Mike Waltz, offered preemptive territorial concessions to Russia.
In a Fox News interview, Waltz was asked whether it would be wrong to assume that negotiations would involve ceding parts of Donbas to Russia.
Instead of categorically denying the possibility, (or at least evading the question until concrete concessions are secured from Russia in a comprehensive peace deal) Waltz left the door open, signaling a readiness to concede territory before negotiations even began.
For the Kremlin, this is yet another early Christmas gift.
Putin now has zero incentive to limit his demands—why stop playing hardball when the White House is already legitimizing his maximalist goals?
Two Critical Questions For The U.S. Policy Remain:
1. What if Putin demands full legal recognition of annexed Ukrainian territories? Would the U.S. comply? If so, this would be an unprecedented capitulation.
2. What if Putin demands that Ukrainian troops retreat from their own controlled territories?
Ukraine would never accept such terms.
What would be the point of three years of devastation, defiance and hundreds of thousands of casualties?
Only to then submit to a revisionist imperialist dictator intent on full destruction of your sovereignty?
No government would politically survive such a move—Zelensky included.
Any one of these demands automatically ensures the failure of negotiations.
But here is the issue: in Putin’s calculations why on earth should he even stop making such maximalist and impossible demands?
He knows Ukraine cannot accept territorial surrender.
He is testing the Trump administration to see how far they will bend.
The only way to change Putin’s calculation is to make the war costlier for Russia.
At present, Putin: sees a U.S. administration eager to appease him.
He furthermore observes that European military support for Ukraine remains limited.
As such, Putin can see what we all can: that the balance of forces still marginally favors Russia, despite high casualties.
The only way to alter his calculus is:
1. Significantly increasing military aid to Ukraine.
2. Imposing severe financial and economic costs on Russia.
Trump has already hinted at taking action, such as: intentionally collapsing oil prices to hurt Russia’s economy (and as a side benefit, lower domestic inflation) and imposing stronger sanctions.
However, none of these steps have materialized yet.
(side note: a rare silver lining is that the new U.S. Treasury Secretary has closed some previous Biden-admin era loopholes in Russian sanctions, tightening financial pressure on Moscow by prohibiting banks’ use of hard currency in payment for Russian oil and gas exports. This is a positive development, and credit should be given where due. It will create a nuisance for Russians - a non-sanctioned Russian bank would need to step in to process energy transactions. But to be clear, to this day, nothing nearly as restrictive as restrictions imposed on Iran are being applied on Russia.)
All the necessary tools to change Putin’s calculus are available.
The Trump administration and European allies have the capacity to impose real costs on Russia.
But until these steps are taken, Putin has no reason to halt his aggression or negotiate in good faith.