In the previous cable we discussed the purpose of the CIA Director Ratcliffe’s Moscow trip and why is it that Putin may even want to expand and escalate the war in Ukraine by conducting an operation against NATO.
Whether that is a direct attack, a hybrid sabotage campaign, or a combination of both.
As a recap, the proximate goal is to create a narrative that Russia is fighting against the entirety of NATO so that 1) Putin can excuse away the fuel shortages and increasing inconveniences to the civilian life (wildberries attacks etc.) as necessary sacrifice in a grand war against all of NATO (not just Ukraine) and 2) Use this as an excuse to create an option to mobilize 300-500k additional men after the September’s Duma/Parliamentary elections: it is easier to justify a mass mobilization event when the war is described in existential terms against the whole NATO vs just Ukraine.
In addition, there is a strategic goal: create major costs for NATO/Europe and coerce them into pushing Ukraine into granting Putin concessions that he needs to declare victory.
In other words, escalate to de-escalate.
Now, in today’s cable, we shall look at why Putin may think that he can get away with such an audacious and risky move.
At the core of all this, is timing.
From Putin’s chair, the escalation math may look more favorable now than it may ever be later.
And there are a number of reasons for this:
Russia’s Potential Escalation And Test of NATO: Why Putin Might Think He Can Get Away With It
