Strategic implications of Ukraine's covert attacks on Russia—and why the timing was so great. Part I.

Most of the near-term outcomes will serve Ukraine's interests.

• In the previous post, we discussed how Ukraine's daring attack on Russia's strategic bomber fleet via FPV drones hidden in cargo containers was going to ensure that Russia wasn't going to come up with new, more reasonable offers and terms for ceasefire—and that instead Putin would be under increasing signaling pressure to maintain maximalist war aims and demands.

• Indeed, this is exactly what happened.

• Monday's meeting in Istanbul was yet another meeting that got nowhere.

• (side note: and shortly thereafter, there was yet another covert mission conducted by Kyiv: an undersea attack against the Kerch bridge connecting Russia to Ukraine.)

• Russia came up with extreme terms and essentially declared that Ukraine needs to accept these—or otherwise there is no deal on a ceasefire.

• Just take a look at these proposed terms: how preposterous, devoid of reality, and deliberately maximalist these are:

• 1) Ukraine withdraws from four partially occupied regions (Donetsk, Luhansk, Kherson, Zaporizhzhia) and lets Russia have them. "International recognition" follows.

• 2) Ukraine pledges never to join any military alliances or coalitions (NATO etc). No foreign boots on the ground or military infrastructure either.

• 3) Any current or future efforts to this end are rolled back or banned.

• 4) No nuclear weapons for Ukraine.

• 5) Caps on Ukraine's military. Far-right units are disbanded.

• 6) "Full guarantee of rights for Russian speakers." Russian becomes an official language.

• 7). Ban on "glorification and promoting of Nazism and neo-Nazism." Nationalist parties and groups are disbanded.

• 8) All western sanctions are lifted. No sanctions can be introduced in future either.

• 9) "Resolution of issues" with family reunification and displaced persons.

• 10) Both sides agree not to demand reparations.

• 11) Ukraine rolls back its restrictions on the Russian Orthodox Church.

• 12) Full restoration of diplomatic and economic relations, "including gas transit," as well as transport and "other ties, including with third countries."

• Any country accepting these terms would essentially be accepting an unconditional surrender to Putin's delusional demands.

• If Ukraine was to accept these demands, they would essentially turn themselves into an impotent, weak quasi-state—completely dependent on the whims of Russia.

• They would lose their territory, they would lose their sovereignty.

• But most importantly, they would lose their dignity as a nation, and that would ensure that Putin could continue to bully Ukraine, exploit this weak state, and set himself up into a perfect position to complete the takeover in one way or another in the future.

• And this leads us to the first point, the first reason why Ukraine's attack was so well-timed:

• 1) Blocked fake de-escalation and “reasonableness” from Putin.