The Black Sea Ceasefire: Who Really Benefits More?

Kyiv wins a shipping lifeline. Moscow eyes sanctions relief. The West splits on enforcement.

• It was announced on Tuesday that Ukraine and Russia agreed to halt attacks in the Black Sea, securing maritime navigation and shielding commercial ports.

• The ceasefire arrives after three years of brutal naval and economic warfare that reshaped the region.

• Ukraine gains immediate relief: safe grain exports and crucially, a pause in Russian port strikes.

• (side note: although if Russia continues the same way as with energy infrastructure ‘‘ceasefire’’ this may not amount to much at all. Just this week, Russian artillery shelling of energy infrastructure in Kherson left 67k without power.)

• Russia, in turn, angles for long-sought sanctions relief, tying the truce to demands for restored access to financial markets (justifying this by the need for financial plumbing to trade in agriculture/fertilizer products).

• Both sides benefit, but not equally: Ukraine wins time, trade, and tactical validation.

• Russia saves its remaining naval assets in the Black Sea.

• Russia additionally gets to position itself advantageously to convert maritime restraint into economic leverage: if the Kremlin’s wishes are satisfied and significant Western financial sanctions are eased without corresponding Russian withdrawal, the long-term balance of advantage tilts toward Moscow.

• So far however, Europeans have ruled out this very concession: Brussels has rejected Russia’s demand to lift EU restrictions on a key agricultural bank, adding (crucially) that its sanctions regime will stay in place until “unconditional withdrawal” of Moscow’s troops from Ukraine.

• This is an area where Europeans hold enormous leverage and are thus far rightly refusing to concede.

• The European decision is also logically consistent: sanctions were imposed for an invasion, and only the reversal should justify their end.

• Otherwise, we would have a bizarre situation where Putin could gradually accomplish his desire to lift most of the biting sanctions in return for promises to not go further.

• Needless to say, this would be a strategically disastrous outcome - one only the most incompetent or spineless (or both) negotiators could come up with.

• In the meantime, it is unclear if Russia will continue to drag its feet and refuse to implement the Black Sea ceasefire deal (citing EU’s refusal for concessions)

• It will mostly depend on Putin’s calculus on Trump’s reaction: would Trump view this as Russia coming up with deliberate excuses or see these demands as justifiable (astonishingly, yes that is still possible..)

• In the meantime however, we shall take a closer look at the terms of the deal as it stands - and who benefits and how.

The Cost Of War At Sea: Asymmetric Outcomes.