Ukraine can still win and recapture territories lost after 2022 - three factors that improve Ukraine's odds of success.

• In the latest post, we rebutted the damaging myth that Ukraine cannot recapture all of its post-2022 invasion lost territories.

• We discussed how Ukraine has been fighting with one arm behind its back and how a proper support enabling Ukraine to win (not merely survive) could turn the tables on the battlefield.

• In this post, we shall focus on Russia - the adversary, and we will discuss three developments that hamper the Kremlin’s ability to win outright after three years of all-out effort.

• As a corollary, these are the very same factors that improve Ukraine’s probability of success.

• (side note: we shall focus on military/Defense-industrial base (DIB) factors. We will revisit the state of the Russian economy in a separate post. Suffice it to say for now that the future headwinds preclude Russia from escalating further expenditure beyond 20-30% (without overheating the economy) from the already very high base. And these extra 20-30% will not be enough to turn the tides - especially if the West finally throws its full weight behind Ukraine.)