Ukraine secures another geopolitical win in the Middle East.

Happy new year and thank you for reading!

Ukraine aims to pull Syria further out of Russia’s orbit.

• That Russia was being pushed out of its only major warm sea port in Tartus was already a significant geopolitical victory for Ukraine.

• (side note: and there are some reports of Ukraine’s military intel agency HUR being deployed to assist the HTS assault - helping them with all things related to coordination, logistics and even drone supply and operations. So Kyiv may not have been a ‘‘passive’’ beneficiary of the new configuration after all.)

• As discussed before, Russia has been redeploying its heavy air defense hardware like S-300s and S-400s out of Syria.

• Naturally, they would not have done so if they were planning to maintain a significant naval presence in Syria - those ships would need air defense cover after all.

• (side note: the main question now is where these would now redeploy? And the early indications are not at all favorable to Moscow - efforts to secure alternative warm-water ports are faltering, with Sudan formally rejecting Moscow's request for a Red Sea base and indications that Libya’s General Khalifa Haftar may also be reluctant. Haftar, reliant on Russian support to maintain a military stalemate with Turkish-backed Tripoli forces, appears wary of a heightened Russian presence in Libya. His primary objective is preserving his geopolitical flexibility, which could be compromised by deeper Russian involvement. Previously, U.S. officials, including AFRICOM's commander, have reportedly conveyed to Haftar during visits to Benghazi that a Russian naval base in Libya would be unwelcome to say the least.. Washington is expected to actively deter any potential host from enabling Moscow’s ambitions, complicating the situation for both Haftar and Russia.)

• With that said, the new Syrian leadership has demonstrated some extreme realpolitik pragmatism vis-à-vis Russia.