Ukraine War Updates - Trump’s Aid Pause Has Immediate Battlefield Repercussions, European Allies Continue To Be Humiliated By The Trump Admin.
1) Trump’s Aid Pause Has Immediate Battlefield Repercussions.
Only a few days into Donald Trump’s decision to pause aid on intelligence and military supplies to Ukraine, the effects are already evident on the battlefield.
Last week, Russia launched one of the largest-ever missile and drone barrages against Ukraine, striking core civilian infrastructure and residential areas, killing innocent civilians.
This is Putin’s response to unilateral concessions.
This is how he “appreciates” Trump’s willingness to pressure Zelensky, (whom Trump sees as having no leverage (or ‘‘no cards’’), while placing no actual pressure on Putin—just threats so far.
Appeasement without concessions only emboldens adversaries.
Russian Military Advances in Kursk And Sumy.
Russian forces have made notable territorial gains in Ukraine's Sumy region, marking their first capture of territory since 2022.
In addition, Russian forces have made territorial gains near Sudzha in the Kursk salient.
After several battles, some areas have been recaptured by Russia for the first time in months.
In a recent and unconventional military maneuver, Russian special forces attempted to ambush Ukrainian troops near the town of Sudzha in Russia's Kursk region by traversing a disused gas pipeline.
Details of the Unconventional Operation.
Russian special forces attempted to ambush Ukrainian troops near the town of Sudzha in Russia's Kursk region by traversing a disused gas pipeline. This operation, executed in early March 2025, involved Russian soldiers navigating approximately 15 kilometers (about 9 miles) through a 1.4-meter-wide pipeline that formerly transported gas to Ukraine.
Russian troops, comprising units from the Veterans private military company (PMC), the Akhmat special forces unit, and the 30th Motorized Rifle Regiment, entered the pipeline with the intent to emerge behind Ukrainian lines near Sudzha.
They reportedly spent several days inside the pipeline before attempting to launch their assault.
Ukrainian forces detected the infiltration in time, allowing them to target the emerging Russian troops with rockets and artillery.
The Ukrainian General Staff announced that Russian special forces were being "detected, blocked, and destroyed," resulting in significant enemy losses near Sudzha.
Casualties and Criticisms: The operation resulted in heavy Russian casualties.
Reports indicate that several soldiers died due to Ukrainian strikes, while others may have suffered from methane poisoning inside the pipeline.
Russian military bloggers criticized the mission's planning, highlighting inadequate provisions and ventilation for the troops involved.
Despite the failed ambush, Russian forces claimed to have recaptured several settlements in the Kursk region, including Cherkasskoye Porechnoye and Kositsa, and reported ongoing fighting near Sudzha.
What this attack demonstrates first and foremost, is that to this day, Russia was unable to accumulate an overwhelming firepower and manpower advantage on its own soil to push out Ukrainians from Kursk without having to resort to extremely risky unconventional tactics that lead to slaughter of soldiers hidden in the pipelines.
What remains unclear is whether U.S. intelligence failed to warn Ukraine—potentially weakening their defenses in Kursk—or whether the suspension of military deliveries played a critical role.
However, what is almost certain is that Russia is seizing the moment to press its advantage now that U.S. support for Ukraine has stopped.
“Now Is the Time to Increase Pressure” is oft-repeated call of the Kremlin insiders and Russian state media - the very obvious and logical argument that with Trump removing U.S. backing, now is precisely the time to escalate.
Notably, before this aid pause, and for over seven months (since Ukraine’s initial incursion in August 2024), Russia failed to retake key territory in Kursk.
Even in October 2024, after deploying 12,000 North Korean troops, Moscow had previously gained very little ground.
In fact, over half of those North Korean troops were wiped out.
Now, suddenly, Russia is making progress.
Even if it is not the direct consequence of the aid/intel-sharing pause, this Russian progress on the battlefield is still nonetheless a direct consequence of Trump’s decision to pause said aid: he has emboldened Putin, and the battlefield reflects that.
2) Intel Sharing Workarounds: How Allies Try To Bypass U.S. Restrictions.
Despite the intelligence pause, there are workarounds being explored:
1. Commercial Satellite Imagery.
The U.S. previously purchased Maxar satellite images and shared them with Ukraine.
Now that the U.S. is withholding them, allies are free to purchase and share them.
(side note: luckily, as of yet there is no evidence that Starlink or Palantir have paused their crucial operations in Ukraine.)
2. NATO and Five Eyes Intel Sharing.
The U.K. and other NATO allies (especially those in the Five Eyes) could still share intelligence with Ukraine.
They could claim it’s their own signals intelligence (SIGINT) rather than U.S.-provided data.
Given the close integration of U.K. and U.S. satellite systems, this is a plausible workaround.
3. The ‘Duty to Warn’ Doctrine.
Established in 2015 by the former Director of National Intelligence (DNI) James Clapper, this policy states that the U.S. must warn any potential targets of imminent attacks, including even non-imminent adversaries.
For example, the U.S. warned Russia ahead of the Crocus City Mall attack (March 2024), when ISIS-K killed 144 people.
The U.S. has also warned Iran about past ISIS threats.
Given Russia’s targeting of civilian infrastructure, there is a strong argument that this doctrine requires the U.S. to continue sharing key intel with Ukraine.
When it comes to targeting civilians/civilian architecture, Russia is no better than most terrorist organizations.
Leaving aside tens of thousands of abducted Ukrainian children (a crime for which Putin himself is wanted by the ICC), Russia frequently conducts deliberately indiscriminate missile strikes to spread chaos and fear in Ukraine.
Surely, duty to warn must apply here - no matter what official high-level policy Trump himself may pursue.
Trump Signals Possible Resumption of Intel Sharing.
When taking questions from the press on Air Force One, Trump himself noted that the pause on intelligence sharing had ‘‘just about ended”.
In a related moment, Washington Post reporters challenged Trump, asking whether Putin was “disrespecting” him by responding to U.S. concessions with intensified attacks.
Predictably, Trump failed to provide an answer.
Instead, he defaulted to his classic media attack strategy, calling the Washington Post “not credible.”
A non-answer that speaks volumes: Trump will berate all - allies, members of the media, American citizens - just not Putin.
3. UK’s Attack Drone Purchase.
While the U.S. has paused its own military support, fortunately, the Trump admin has not blocked allies from purchasing and delivering weapons to Ukraine.
Last week, the U.K. bought attack drones from Anduril, which will then be delivered to Ukraine.
These drones are highly resistant to electronic warfare, making them strategically valuable.
This is yet another indication that Western allies can replicate similar transfer and resupply Ukraine with intel and ammo - after purchasing them from U.S. suppliers.
In fact, allies would be wise to continue scaling up such orders on behalf of Ukraine - it would be much more awkward for the U.S. to later block these sales, cancel the contracts, and hurt the bottom line of large American weapons producers - companies that are already losing a ton of stock market capitalization value since Trump’s return to office (and all of the resulting policies).
3. U.S. Leadership Continues To Humiliate Frontline Allies.
At the time when Europe was scrambling to undo the damage caused by the pause in U.S. military aid, Elon Musk thought it prudent to ridicule Poland’s Foreign Minister, calling him a “small man.”
Marco Rubio, the Secretary of State, then joined in and accused Poland of lying when it raised concerns about Starlink’s reliability.
And of course, he demanded that Poland - one of the staunchest NATO allies of the U.S. say ‘‘thank you’’ for all the help coming from the U.S.
Rubio then claimed that without Starlink, Poland would have Russia at its borders - since Ukraine would collapse and Putin would take over the entire country.
In making these claims, Rubio is essentially admitting that Putin’s goal is full Ukrainian conquest.
The contradictions in the Trump administration’s approach are glaring and irreconcilable: Rubio acknowledges Putin wants all of Ukraine, not just Donbas. Yet, Trump still believes Ukraine should make concessions.
The U.S. even refused to vote in the U.N. against Russia and in favor of Ukraine (deviating from the line held by all of its core allies in Europe and G7) or label Russia as the aggressor in the G7 statement.
This lack of coherence in U.S. policy is destabilizing not just to Ukraine’s ability to defend itself, but also to the entire Western alliance altogether.
End result: empowering Putin to act with even greater aggression and confidence.
The Art of The Deal continues to deliver.