U.S. Abandonment of Europe and Transatlantic Rift: Three Dangerous Geopolitical Implications.

Transatlantic Strategic Decoupling and the Rise of European Defense Autonomy.

• Last week’s discussion focused on the growing divergence between the United States and Europe in the realm of defense, triggered largely by the Trump administration’s retreat from its traditional transatlantic commitments.

• This shift has incentivized European governments to significantly ramp up defense industrial production, invest more heavily in their domestic military-industrial base, and increase procurement from European arms manufacturers such as Rheinmetall, Leonardo, and MBDA (a major missile manufacturer).

• This trend is reflected in financial markets: the stock values of European defense contractors have risen, while those of US-based weapons manufacturers have declined.

• The underlying anxiety centers around Europe’s increasing unease with over-reliance on US weapons systems—an issue with deep strategic consequences for long-term US leverage.

• The ‘Kill Switch’ Controversy and F-35 Dependency.

• One of the more controversial aspects of this strategic shift is concern about potential vulnerabilities in US-made systems, specifically the F-35 fighter jet.

• European policymakers have speculated about the possibility of a so-called “kill switch” that might allow the US government—or Lockheed Martin—to disable the jets remotely.

• While such a feature is likely a myth (introducing a kill switch would inherently make the aircraft more susceptible to cyber attacks and manipulation), nonetheless, the fact that Lockheed Martin and Pentagon had to publicly deny the existence of such a function indicates the depth of European mistrust.

• (side note: we have a full analysis of this issue in a separate post here.)

• And even if no such kill switch exists, the F-35 program still creates heavy dependency.

• European air forces remain tied to a US supply chain for maintenance, parts, and upgrades.

• In this context, it’s hard to imagine many European states rushing to allocate future defense budgets toward the F-47, the next-generation stealth aircraft announced last week.

• At a time when the F-35 itself is seen as an unacceptable dependence risk, attention is instead shifting to indigenous or alternative platforms—such as the UK-Japan-Italy-led Tempest project and Turkey’s fifth-generation KAAN stealth aircraft, which is co-developed with BAE Systems and attracting interest from potential buyers like Saudi Arabia and the UAE.

• Strategic Implications: Declining US Leverage and the Rise of European Power.

• The broader implication of this transatlantic rift is a slow but steady erosion of US leverage over its European allies.

• Ironically, this development addresses one of Trump’s long-standing criticisms—that Europeans do not spend enough on defense.

• If European countries continue on this trajectory and eventually reach an average of 3% of GDP in defense spending, the continent could emerge as a standalone military superpower.

• In purchasing power parity (PPP) terms, Europe might even outspend the US and China, especially with high contributions from Germany, Poland, the UK, and Turkey.

• But beyond this more immediate and near-term effect of a transatlantic rift, there are two additional long-term implications that stem from Trump admin’s abandonment of America’s European allies.