U.S. Airstrikes Against Houthis—A Calculated Show of Force With Signaling For Iran and Russia.
The recent decision by the Trump administration to conduct airstrikes against the Houthis represents a decisive shift in strategy, diverging sharply from the Biden administration’s approach.
Unlike the previous retaliatory one-to-one strikes, which targeted individual launchers (and few ammo depots) in response to specific Houthi missile attacks, this campaign is aimed at eradicating the group’s capability to hold global shipping hostage.
This strategic shift signals a more aggressive and comprehensive military response, one designed not just to punish but to degrade and dismantle the Houthis’ ability to continue these attacks.
Now, historically, the Houthis have demonstrated resilience against sustained air campaigns.
Between 2015 and 2022, Saudi Arabia conducted over 25,000 airstrikes against them, yet the group remains a potent force.
It’s worth noting that these were not just Saudi military operations—these were U.S.-made bombs dropped from U.S.-made fighter jets, guided by U.S. advisors.
This underscores that simply having airpower does not guarantee success in neutralizing an adversary entrenched in asymmetric warfare.
That said, the UK-U.S. airstrikes under Biden in early 2024 reportedly eliminated up to 40% of the Houthis’ launcher capabilities.
(side note: The question that remains is: why was this campaign halted prematurely? There has been no clear or plausible explanation for the restraint shown, despite the group continuing to pose a threat to both civilian lives and commercial stability. The lack of ground troops required for such operations, combined with the fact that these strikes carry no direct risk to U.S. personnel, makes the prior decision to halt operations strategically puzzling.)
The Immediate and Strategic Triggers.
So why now?
The timing of these renewed strikes is driven by several key factors - some are proximate and short-term, others are more strategic:
1. Immediate Provocation: Houthi Threats to Shipping.
Last week, the Houthis announced their intention to resume attacks on Israeli-linked shipping in response to Israel’s refusal to lift the humanitarian blockade of Gaza.
(side note: and that total humanitarian aid blockade is another travesty in itself. An obvious war crime that this administration will unfortunately not prevent. Trump is the only person Netanyahu is scared of crossing. And yet Trump will almost certainly not deploy his vast leverage to preclude this humanitarian catastrophe.)
However, the Houthis’ definition of “Israeli-linked” is broad and indiscriminate, meaning that their attacks would inevitably damage U.S. and allied shipping, further disrupting supply chains.
For the U.S., this presents a direct economic risk: with inflation concerns resurfacing at home and global tariffs rising, another major supply chain disruption could exacerbate inflationary pressures—a scenario that this administration cannot afford.
Left unchecked, Houthis could once again cause a lot of economic havoc.
The Red Sea is a vital artery for international trade, connecting Europe, the Middle East, and Asia.
Approximately one-third of all container traffic and a substantial portion of oil and liquefied natural gas shipments transit through this region.
Since October 2023, the Houthis have targeted vessels in these waters, leading to increased shipping costs and delays.
Insurance premiums for voyages through the Red Sea have surged, with rates rising from the typical 0.6% of cargo value to up to 2%.
This has then prompted many shipping companies to reroute vessels around the Cape of Good Hope, adding significant distance, time, and fuel expenses to their journeys.
And when it comes to the U.S. consumer, the higher costs are even more immediate.
Major U.S. retailers, such as Target and Walmart, source products from regions affected by these shipping disruptions.
The added shipping costs and delays are often passed down the supply chain, leading to higher prices for consumers.
In addition, the Red Sea's significance in oil transportation means that any instability can lead to fluctuations in global energy prices, indirectly affecting fuel costs for U.S. consumers and businesses.
(side note: Trump’s tariff wars are already likely to drive up inflation considerably. Last thing this admin needs is further snafus in the global supply chain and increases in the cost-push inflation. On the other hand however, it is much easier to blame such an inflation on external factors vs self-inflicted economic woes.)
2. A Strategic Message to Iran.
Beyond dealing with the Houthis themselves, the strikes serve as a direct message to Tehran.
This operation signals to Iran that the U.S. is willing to use force decisively, with minimal risk and cost.
It also serves as a reminder that Tomahawk cruise missiles used in this operation could be directed at Iran itself should Tehran refuse last-minute negotiations.
This is to not confuse Iranians that Trump’s stated desire to get out of the Middle East and to end ‘‘endless wars’’ and ‘‘chaos’’ will not preclude his decisive action against Iran.
A reminder that this is the same man that has ordered the assassination of the Quds forces leader Qassem Soleimani in January 2020.
Additionally, these airstrikes function as preemptive deterrence: by reducing the Houthis’ capabilities now, the U.S. limits Iran’s ability to use them as a retaliatory tool if negotiations collapse and the U.S. proceeds with (or supports Israel-conducted) airstrikes.
Tehran has historically leveraged proxy groups to pressure Washington, and by eroding the Houthis’ effectiveness, the U.S. preemptively blunts one of Iran’s options for escalation: causing mayhem to global shipping.
3. A Secondary Signal to Russia.
Russia has previously considered (in late 2024) expanding their assistance to the Houthis (from covert targeting help to provision of anti-ship ballistic missiles) and could have used them as an indirect pressure point against the U.S. in future diplomatic negotiations.
By aggressively degrading the Houthis’ military capabilities, Washington makes any future Russian support less effective and preempts potential leverage Moscow could hold over the U.S.
It preemptively blunts Moscow’s threat of arming/supporting Houthis as a potential retaliation to increased U.S. sanctions/measures/support for Ukraine if Russia continues to resist a ceasefire.
Additionally, if the Houthis’ operational capabilities are sufficiently reduced, Russia loses a bargaining chip.
Moscow can no longer claim that it is restraining the Houthis in exchange for diplomatic concessions if the group is already incapable of mounting meaningful attacks.
A Rare, Smart And Strategic Foreign Policy Decision From The Trump Administration.
Given the low cost of these airstrikes, the high potential benefits, and the broader strategic implications regarding Iran and Russia, this is one of the few clear-headed, strategically sound military decisions made by this administration to date.
Unlike previous half-measures, these strikes appear to be part of a deliberate effort to comprehensively dismantle a growing threat, rather than merely reacting to specific provocations.
The U.S. now has an opportunity to fully (or at least mostly) neutralize the Houthis’ capacity to disrupt global trade—a goal that, if achieved, would significantly weaken Iran’s regional leverage and eliminate a key economic and security risk for the West.
The question that remains is whether this administration will follow through to the end, or if—like in 2024—it will halt operations before achieving total strategic success.