US-Iran Negotiations: "Indirect" Start & Difficult Questions Ahead.

• The first talks between Iran and the US under the Trump Administration were held in Oman yesterday.

• The Iranian side stuck to the ‘‘indirect’’ format for these talks (facilitated via Omani shuttle diplomacy) and yet Iranian negotiator and Foreign Minister Abbas Araghchi and Trump’s Envoy Steve Witkoff did have a brief face to face and pleasantries were exchanged.

• Aragchi also described the negotiations as “conducted in a calm and very respectful environment”

• For his part, Witkoff told NBC that his talks with Iran were ‘‘very positive’’ and that there has been a “very constructive conversation”.

• Now, two points worth mentioning here before we proceed with substantive analysis of future negotiations:

• 1) Trump used to deride Biden admin for the indignity of agreeing to ‘‘indirect’’ negotiations with Iran (and these cables shared the view that there was no good reason for American diplomats to accept such a powerless ridiculous frame), and yet here he is with his envoy agreeing to this very indirect format just days after Trump himself announced that there would be ‘‘direct’’ negotiations on Saturday.

• Did Trump know of this and approve?

• Or was he left in the dark by Witkoff?

• Perhaps they didn’t bother him with such ‘‘details’’.

• Or perhaps he is so eager to start these talks that he eventually relented (it is becoming a pattern these days) and agreed to Iranian format?

• If it is the latter, then that is a bad signal of Trump’s state of mind - overeagerness usually doesn’t precede strong outcomes in negotiated agreements: Iranian side may read this as a signal to stick to their maximalist demands on core issues and concede on more peripheral issues to then help Trump secure a quick diplomatic ‘‘win’’.

• Either way we don’t know if Trump was aware - but Iranians may still interpret it as such: that Trump willingly accepted their ridiculous format.

• As such, someone must be in a real rush here.

• 2) We need to take everything coming out of Witkoff’s mouth with two tonnes of salt - after all, this is the same guy who was touched by Putin’s faux attempts to signal friendship with Putin and him allegedly praying for Trump after Trump survived an assassination attempt in July of last year.

• So when Witkoff says that conversations were ‘‘very constructive’’ that literally means nothing of actual value.

• With all that said, the talks will resume next week, and so it is time to delve in deeper into upcoming sticking points and strategic calculus of each side.

Turbulence Ahead: Strategic Issues And Questions For Each Side.