Washington and EU Must Stop Netanyahu's Expansionist Adventurism in Syria.

Escalating Tensions in Syria: Israel’s Adventurism and the Potential for a Renewed Crisis

• After decades of dictatorship and a brutal civil war that claimed the lives of more than half a million people, Syria finally had a chance for a semblance of stability, security, and even prosperity following the fall of Bashar al-Assad’s regime in December of last year.

• This turning point was orchestrated by rebel forces led by Hay’at Tahrir al-Sham (HTS) from Idlib, with backing from Turkey.

• The New Syrian Leadership and Its Evolution.

• Concerns initially surfaced regarding the ideological orientation of HTS and its leader, Ahmad al-Sharaa, the current President of Syria.

• In his late teens, al-Sharaa was briefly affiliated with Al-Qaeda during the resistance against the U.S. invasion of Iraq.

• However, he has repeatedly clarified that this association was short-lived and that he quickly distanced himself from Al-Qaeda.

• In fact, HTS has been engaged in military conflicts with both Al-Qaeda and ISIS for years, cementing their status as sworn enemies.

• Since taking power, HTS leadership has demonstrated a commitment to moderation and inclusivity.

• The new government has allowed freedoms unseen in Syria for decades—bars and nightclubs in Damascus are open, alcohol flows freely, and al-Sharaa actively engages with leaders of all Syrian communities, including Jews, Druze, and Kurds.

• Even the leader of the Syrian Democratic Forces (SDF), which once functioned as an autonomous military force, has expressed willingness to integrate into a unified Syrian National Army, signaling progress toward the consolidation of a stable, centralized state.

• Israel’s Interference: A New Threat to Syria’s Stability.

• Rather than Russia or Iran, it is now Israel - a liberal-democracy - that poses the greatest threat to Syria’s newfound stability.

• And this is in spite of numerous attempts by the HTS leadership to offer an opportunity for detente with Israel, and promises to preclude Syria from becoming a launchpad for attacks (by other groups) on Israel.

• (side note: in fact it is hard to imagine any more deliberately softer response to 1) Israeli airstrikes on Syria’s military-industrial base, and 2) expansion of Israeli ‘‘buffer zone’’ in the Golan Heights region. al-Sharaa and the HTS have demonstrated the level of restraint not seen in decades of modern political history.)

• Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu appears to be following a destabilization strategy eerily similar to Russia’s interventions in Georgia and Ukraine, using the pretext of protecting ethnic minorities to justify military action.

• This is because Netanyahu has declared his intent to intervene militarily in Syria, allegedly to protect the country’s Druze minority.

• However, this justification is manufactured and baseless—there has been no request for Israeli protection from the Syrian Druze community.

• In fact, Syrian Druze leaders have been quick to distance themselves from Israel and reject any foreign intervention in their affairs.

• Despite this, and just today, Israel announced that the IDF is prepared to intervene in a Druze-populated village near Damascus.

• This is a significant escalation, as the area in question lies within the Damascus metropolitan region - the very capital of Syria.

• This suggests that Israel is no longer just expanding its buffer zone in the Golan Heights but is now openly attempting to invade and occupy the entirety of southern Syria - up to and potentially even including the actual capital.

• (side note: while the world has been distracted by the Zelensky vs Trump/Vance showdown, Netanyahu decides to use this opportunity to invade more territory.)

• Should this materialize, it would amount to a blatant act of war.

The Consequences of Israeli Adventurism: Chaos, Civil War, and Refugee Crises For Europe and Turkey.

• If Israel proceeds with military action in southern Syria, several dangerous consequences are inevitable:

• 1. A Renewed Syrian Conflict – The HTS-led Syrian government will be forced to engage militarily with Israel.

• In turn, Israel will likely support rival factions within Syria, igniting a new phase of civil war and plunging the country back into chaos.

• 2. Another Refugee Crisis – Any conflict that destabilizes Syria will trigger a mass exodus of refugees, a scenario that Europe has been desperately trying to avoid.

• The EU cannot afford another wave of migration on its shores, nor can Turkey, which already hosts millions of Syrian refugees.

• 3. Turkey’s Strategic Interests at Stake – Turkey, which has played a crucial role in supporting HTS and stabilizing northern Syria, will be directly threatened by Israeli actions.

• With the U.S. on the brink of abandoning Ukraine and Europe, the EU now views Turkey as an indispensable partner for defense and security.

• Any conflict that disrupts Turkey’s regional role will have ripple effects on European security.

• Why the EU Must Step Up and Contain Israel.

• While Washington remains an unreliable check on Netanyahu, the European Union must act decisively.

• (side note: just two weeks ago, thousands of additional U.S.-made MK-84 2,000 pound bombs were delivered to Israel.)

• If not out of moral concern for Syrians, then at least out of pragmatic self-interest—the EU simply cannot afford another Syrian collapse or a new mass refugee movement into its borders.

• The EU must threaten to impose serious political and economic costs on Netanyahu’s government to deter further escalation.

• While Israel has historically resisted external coercion, Europe holds significant leverage—notably in trade, financial access, arms exports, and international diplomacy.

• If coordinated effectively, these tools could impose real costs on continued incursions.

• 1) Economic Leverage: Trade and Sanctions.

• The EU is Israel’s largest trading partner, absorbing 25% of Israeli exports and supplying a third of its imports.

• This makes trade restrictions one of the most immediate pressure points.

• The EU-Israel Association Agreement, which grants Israel duty-free market access, contains a human-rights clause allowing suspension for violations.

• Spain and Ireland have already pushed for a review, and Brussels could threaten to suspend preferential trade status within weeks.

• Reinstating tariffs on Israeli exports or cutting R&D and infrastructure loans: (over €2.2 billion has been lent by the European Investment Bank) would escalate financial costs.

• Europe can also threaten to impose targeted sanctions:

• Ban military and dual-use technology exports, limiting Israel’s ability to sustain operations.

• Restrict EU-based financing for Israeli firms linked to Syria operations.

• Suspend new bilateral trade initiatives while reviewing existing agreements.

• While Israel could seek alternative markets, the threat of losing EU access would disrupt key industries like agriculture, pharmaceuticals, and technology—applying domestic economic pressure to de-escalate regional actions.

• Diplomatic Pressure: UN Actions and Regional Coordination.

• Diplomatically, Europe can mobilize pressure through the UN and regional actors.

• At the UN Security Council, EU members could push for a resolution demanding Israeli military restraint.

• While a U.S. veto is likely, the UN General Assembly offers an alternative—a non-binding condemnation that isolates Israel diplomatically.

• Beyond the UN, the EU can coordinate with Arab states—Jordan, Egypt, and Gulf partners—to form a joint Euro-Arab diplomatic démarche opposing Israeli actions in Syria.

• A coordinated response would amplify pressure, especially as Israel seeks to maintain its normalization deals with Gulf states.

• Summoning Israeli ambassadors, freezing high-level dialogues, or recalling EU envoys from Tel Aviv would reinforce diplomatic censure.

• 3)Military and Strategic Deterrence.

• The EU can halt arms exports and military cooperation, a measure already gaining traction.

• Germany, Spain, the Netherlands, and Italy have paused arms shipments, and Brussels could threaten to formalize an EU-wide arms embargo.

• This would restrict access to critical defense components, impacting Israeli procurement and military readiness over time

• The Path Forward.

  Immediate steps—trade suspensions, targeted sanctions, UN action, and regional coordination—could be initiated within the next month.

• If Israel ignores initial warnings (and realistically diplomatic pressure alone will not do much to Netanyahu - who traditionally thrives under the ‘‘rally round the flag’’ strategy), Europe can escalate to full economic restrictions and diplomatic isolation.

• A cohesive, sustained EU response would force Israel to recalculate the cost of intervention in Syria.

• The strategic imperative is clear: preventing another Syrian civil war and chaos in Syria is in Europe’s national security interests.

Netanyahu’s Strategy Is Also Bad for Israel.

• Netanyahu’s approach is self-defeating, even from an Israeli security perspective:

• 1. Arab Opposition Will Intensify – A direct intervention in Syria will antagonize Arab states, undermining Israel’s efforts to normalize relations with Saudi Arabia, Jordan, and other key players.

• These countries have no interest in a chaotic Syria next to their borders, nor in a revived terrorist threat that this chaos would eventually enable.

• 2. Uncertain U.S. Support Under Trump – Netanyahu is betting that a potential Trump administration will give him a free hand, but this is not guaranteed.

• Trump has close ties with Erdogan and views Turkey as a critical partner in security and defense - especially as he is trying to leave Europe and the Middle East.

• If Turkey lobbies aggressively, Trump could reverse course on Netanyahu, just as he has done in the past.

• 3. A Miscalculated Confrontation with Turkey – Israel cannot afford a direct clash with Turkey, a rising middle power that is strengthening its defense partnerships with both the EU and the Gulf states.

• Turkey has improved relations with Saudi Arabia, the UAE, and Egypt, making it a formidable regional player.

• Rather than risking an unnecessary confrontation with Turkey, Israel should return to a pragmatic relationship with Ankara and align against the common threat—Iran.

A Dangerous Situation with High Stakes - Trump Must Cancel The Blank Check.

• The U.S. must intervene diplomatically and help the EU to prevent another major crisis.

• Washington must signal that Netanyahu does not have a blank check to ignite another war in the Middle East.

• If Trump is willing to publicly humiliate the Ukrainian President— leader of a country fighting for its survival—then he should apply the same tough talk to Netanyahu, who is not under existential threat but rather indulging in reckless expansionism.

• The stakes are too high—another round of instability, another surge of terrorism, another refugee crisis: certainly not what Trump is promising in the Middle East.

• And all of this is avoidable, provided there is strong international pressure to rein in Israel’s actions.