Washington considers preemptive strikes on Iranian nuclear sites.

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Outgoing Biden admin discussed the option to bomb Iranian nuclear facilities.

• Recent reports indicate that President Joe Biden and his national security team have deliberated on potential military responses to Iran's advancing nuclear program.

• In a confidential meeting held several weeks ago, National Security Adviser Jake Sullivan presented various options, emphasizing the necessity for a decisive response should Iran expedite its nuclear armament.

• In many ways, and if the military assessment is favorable, this is indeed great timing.

• As the Secretary of State Antony Blinken himself said recently, “Iran is not in much of a position to pick a fight with anyone . .”

• It is however unclear if Biden is serious about preemptive strikes.

• Certainly, there is not much time left until he is out and thus far, there have been little concrete indications (or leaks) to suggest that the decision to strike Iranian targets will be taken anytime soon.

• With that said, the incoming Trump admin could still pull the trigger.

• Although it is true that Trump has indicated willingness to consider a new deal, given his criticisms of the JCPOA/nuclear deal from 2015, it is unlikely that Trump would accept any new deal that wasn’t extremely prohibitive to Iran.

• Any new deal from Trump should/would likely include three must haves (which were absent from the previous deal): 1) no sunset provisions (no expiry of restrictions on Iranian nuclear programme), 2) full ban and blockade on Iranian ballistic missile program, and 3) advanced continuous inspection/observation capabilities that cannot be suspended by Iran (where violations trigger automatic collapse of the deal).

• It is not at all clear that Iran would agree to such terms.

• But then again, what is their alternative? Their economy is in ruins and proxies all but wiped out.

• And refusal to agree to a new comprehensive deal would ensure the existence of a persistent risk of preemptive strikes from Israel/U.S. hanging over them like the sword of Damocles.

• But regardless of any future possible deals, it is worth remembering that this is indeed a very opportune time to conduct preemptive strikes on Iran’s weaponized nuclear program facilities.

• And this is for at least three reasons;