Weekly Overview

The US still maintains significant leverage in Vienna talks - insists on squandering it

• Iran is starting negotiations strong - framing it as a bureaucratic step on the way back to the ultimate objective: a pre-2017 era state of affairs, where Iran didn’t face a plethora of post-Trump maximum pressure sanctions.

• (side note: depending on who exactly you ask from the Iranian side, some of them even demand that all sanctions - not just the JCPOA/Nuclear deal related, be removed)

• Indeed, from their perspective, stalling and playing for more time is the correct strategy - time that is essential for advancement in their nuclear program, only further strengthens their hand by providing further leverage.

• So it is not surprising that to add more pressure, Iranians have:

• 1) Resumed their production of equipment for advanced centrifuges, and;

• 2) Refused IAEA’s legitimate demands for monitoring and safeguards at the nuclear sites.

• Iran is in fact getting closer to WGU (weapon-grade uranium), and the following prognosis from the International Institute for Science and International Security was from September:

• ‘‘A worst-case breakout estimate, which is defined as the time required to produce enough WGU for one nuclear weapon, is as short as one month. Iran could produce a second significant quantity of WGU in less than three months after breakout commences. It could produce a third quantity in less than five months, where it would need to produce some of the WGU from natural uranium[emphasis added].’’

• One month! And that was back in September..

• Now, it is worth noting that actually building a nuclear weapon is a significantly more complex procedure that is likely to require more time - but how much more?

• We simply don’t know for certain.

• It is unlikely that even the best confidential intel has a high degree of certainty on the time needed for Iran to complete a nuclear bomb.

• We do know however, that the US Commander in the Middle East, General Kenneth McKenzie admits that ‘‘They’re very close this time” [to a nuclear weapon].

• Given this, and given the inherent uncertainty on the precise timeline needed for Iran to build a bomb, it is imperative that the US uses its leverage effectively and avoids statements and conduct that squander it.

• But first, what is our leverage here?