Weekly Overview
Assassination of Iranian Nuclear Scientist - Mohsen Fakhrizadeh
I will skip the obvious and focus on nuances;
- Will Iran retaliate?
- If so when?
"We will respond to the assassination of Martyr Fakhrizadeh in a proper time” says Iranian president Rohani
They key phrase here is ‘‘ proper time’’
Iran is clearly hoping for a reset and a breathing space with Biden’s administration
If it was for Rohani alone, he would rather delay or even forego a retaliation
However, Iran political leadership is confined by its own rhetoric and its militaristic institutions
Key military leaders in Quds forces, and interior security agencies, were already disappointed in the lackluster retaliation to General Suleimani’s assassination back in January
Yet another assassination of a high-profile Iranian - and this time on their own soil, is a slap in the face to the military establishment of Iran
The ‘‘military honor/prestige/hard power prowess’’ of Iran is now on the line
Rohani will try to delay a retaliation until Biden comes into office
However he might have to do something- his hand could be forced
In this eventuality, not unlikely that some Israeli officials or embassies could be targeted
In any case, retaliation is unlikely to take place against the US
Any sort of retaliation would however be a grave mistake at this point. It would play into Israeli hands and justify military intervention - perhaps in tandem with Saudi Arabia
This in turn would significantly reduce Biden’s maneuverability on Iran
Smart policy for Biden would be to diversify his sources of Middle East alliances by propping up [currently dire] relationship with Erdogan.
which leads us to..
How Biden Should Handle Erdogan
Erdogan’s hand is getting weaker.
Economy is suffering, Lira [national currency] is down, foreign direct investment is down
Tensions with Russia increase in both Libya and Syria
Additionally, a new frontier of competition is opening up: South Caucasus- where Erdogan wants to place a Turkish military unit to join Russia in its ‘‘ Peacekeeping ‘‘ mission in Karabakh
Putin obviously not happy with this
Tensions with Russia likely to rise
Therefore, not surprising that Erdogan declared Europe as the destination for Turkish political future
+ his desire for a reset with Biden
What should Biden do? What are the outstanding issues with Erdogan
On S400, either Biden should counter-offer American Patriots or accept Turkish software company Aselsan’s guarantees that its software would override Russian S400 software - that F35 signatures would not be available to Russians
Biden could protect pro-US Syrian fighters BUT BUT
He should alleviate Erdogan’s concerns re PKK
In return for Turkey ceasing its attacks on Syrian fighters, Biden should push for a disarmament of PKK - a terrorist organization [as recognized by the US] and responsible for deaths of 30-40k Turks
Turkey’s importance for US will only increase
It is a key ally against Russian influence in the region
+ it is an ally that US could rely on in the middle east, providing leverage against Israel/Saudi Arabia
Both Israel and Saudi Arabia should know that they do not own unconditional US support
By strengthening alliance with Turkey, Biden could use that fact as a counter-leverage in the region
America wins more this way
UK Withdraws its Judges from HK
What would this do to HK?
The reputation for the ‘‘ Rule of Law ‘‘ would be significantly damaged in the absence of UK high court judges overseeing appeals
What would this do to business and foreign direct investment?
Damage both. Significantly.
What is the strategic play here?
1. Soft Power ‘Threat Display’ - UK is punishing another country [China] for crossing it. Significant impact = reminder of UK’s soft power prowess = more leverage on trade deals all across the world
2. Demonstrating willingness/capacity to act tough against China - useful when/if rallying regional allies like Australia/New Zealand/South Korea/Japan against China
3. Presenting a united front with US. Reminding US of UK’s importance on the global chessboard. Especially now that UK is out of EU and needs to reassure the world of its prowess and impact
4. Punishing China. Damaging it economically. Pure and simple.
5. Warning other authoritarian wannabes of repercussions for violating liberal world order and its institutions